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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: crazyoldman who wrote (80247)	5/18/2002 11:42:29 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

You are dodging the question again. What evidence to YOU have to back up your claim that "AMD's 0.13 is falling flat"? You're not really serious are you? Would you argue that if AMD never got it working then there would never be any evidence that it didn't work so we can conclude it did? EP

To: crazyoldman who wrote (80247)	5/19/2002 2:54:12 AM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Crazyman, Re: "What evidence to YOU have to back up your claim that "AMD's 0.13 is falling flat"?" Falling flat may be too strong a statement, but I think it's safe to say it's been well delayed from their previous goals as defined during their Q1 2001 earnings conference. "It is significant to note that the conversaion of FAB30 to .13 microns is on plan and we intend to begin production ... start in the fourth quarter of this year, and we expect all production output to be totally converted to .13 microns by the end of next year." jc-news.com If that sounds like a long time ago, here is another quote from their Q3 2001 earnings conference: "<Erik> My understanding is that you will ramp .13 process sometime in December. Is that still on track at this point? <Hector>Yes it is , we're on plan to begin production before the end of the year." jc-news.com Well, that didn't happen, but here's what they said during their Q4 2001 earnings conference: "Well let me answer first the question on the 130nm. The 130nm Athlons, which internally are codenamed thoroughbred, are widely sampled at customers, will commence production this quarter." jc-news.com Yet now the first quarter has come and gone, and still no .13u CPUs. Currently, evidence seems to suggest June 10, the end of the second quarter, as AMD's eventual desktop Thoroughbred ship date. And to be sure, with the exception being a few low speed Mobile Thoroughbreds that cannot even be purchased in the United States, these really will be the first Thoroughbred units to hit the streets. If being 6+ months late isn't bad enough, it seems that AMD hasn't been able to improve the performance of the process in the mean time. They will still be launching with a top speed of 1.8GHz, which is only 67MHz faster than their top .18u speed. It will also require .1V more voltage than the lower speed Thoroughbred CPUs, which suggests that even 1.8GHz won't be easy to produce. You would think that a 6+ month delay would have given them more time to try and launch at 2.0GHz, or something close to that. And even with Hammer on SOI, AMD is only promising a 2GHz launch by the end of the year, which doesn't seem to suggest that their .13u will have matured much by then. So, "falling flat" may not be the phrase, but I think it's obvious that they have run into problems. And that does cast at least a little doubt on whether they can keep to their previous goals. Just MHO, BWDIK. wbmw