To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (59556 ) 5/19/2002 10:46:52 PM From: puborectalis Respond to of 77397 Economic Trends Edited by Michael J. Mandel Tech's Weakness Is Only Relative With business spending on technology down almost 20% from its 2000 high, the tech sector is clearly hurting. That raises the question: How much of the infotech boom represented sustainable levels of spending? Quite a bit, it turns out. Business investment as a share of gross domestic product typically hits its low at the beginning of a recovery--right where we are now. The latest official data show that business investment in IT now stands at 3.3% of GDP. That figure--including spending on computers, communications equipment, and software--is down from a high of 4.3% at the end of 2000. However, it is a full percentage point above the 2.3% of GDP recorded right after the recession of 1990-91. In effect, tech spending has held on to about half its gains of the 1990s, or a percentage point of GDP--nothing to sneeze at. With GDP running at more than $10 trillion, that extra point of output is worth about $100 billion. Moreover, if there was an investment bubble in the 1990s, it may have been more on the nontech side. Business spending on non-IT equipment, such as trucks, industrial machinery, and construction equipment, rose from 4.8% of GDP in 1991 to a peak of 6% in 1999. Since then, nontech investment has given back virtually all of its increase, falling to 5% of GDP in the first quarter of 2002. There is little evidence of a sustainable rise in nontech investment. Here's another way to assess tech spending. Despite the meltdown, IT spending in 2001 was still high enough to make up for the depreciation of existing hardware and software, BusinessWeek estimates. As a result, the amount of IT equipment per worker, measured using historical costs, continued to rise in 2001. That helps explain why productivity growth has stayed strong. Of course, not all of tech has held up equally well. Spending on communications equipment, as a share of GDP, is no higher than it was in 1991, showing the effects of the telecom crash. By contrast, business spending on software has doubled as a share of GDP, from 0.9% in 1991 to 1.8% today, barely off its 2000 high. Indeed, American businesses now spend more on software than they do on aircraft, trucks, and other vehicles--something that is not likely to change anytime soon.