To: epicure who wrote (48006 ) 5/19/2002 9:24:02 PM From: coug Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 82486 Hi X, << Chains of causation are simply too complex for us poor little human critters to fathom. Reflection is somewhat useful after this kind of event, but the next event which is similar will be dissimilar enough to make comparisons useless.>> Absolutely, And that is why I roll my eyes, when I read and hear of "our leadership" playing the game of chess with international relationships and on down to individual armchair quarterbacks proclaiming with great pomposity, if we do this to "country a", "country b" will respond like this "to be" "country c" and on and on as they fight: Last year's war with a policy that is not a dollar short, but a decade behind, (And time, IMO, is always more important than money, but that is another story for another time).. So it never works, and a REACTIVE policy is implemented and when that reactive tact is taken, a person, an entity or society will never catch up.... Like our current administration, is pleading ignorance as an excuse for the 9-11 tragedy.. To paraphrase Ms. Rice, "We didn't expect them to fly passenger and fuel leaden domestic airliners into the WTC on September 11".. They had never done that before".. Is ignorance an excuse? No.. So please DON'T use it in such an important matter.. We the citizens of this country pay these people and therefore expect these people to be ahead of the curve to their best abilities. And to be open and honest with US and themselves.. And ALLOW self-examination, as all good societies should do. But to be fair.. All leaders throughout history, and damn near all individuals look backward and base their conclusions of the the future on the past.. You learn from the past..But "The past is not the key to the future" as we were taught in so many geology classes <gg>, It helps there..But life and society are dynamic, versus a more static geologic environment .. Well, we are not taking in account,<gg> plate tectonics, and it's related volcanic and structural activity, erosion, transportation, sedimentation, etc. And all of the above, do not react in a predictable way based upon the past... There are just too many randomly placed variables for the events to bounce off of to predict what hole the event will fall in..... But an individual must learn from the past, to get a PATTERN, like in trading, which hopefully should reduce the variables.. Just some Sunday evening thoughts with a glass of Merlot. m