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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (14250)	5/20/2002 11:01:14 AM
From: Gus	Respond to of 17183

Oh, I didn't know you were using Gartner's numbers. I was talking about storage revenues in general, and in storage revenues in general, NTAP is clearly gaining share. You're not making much sense, but show me anyway how NTAP is clearly gaining share using storage revenues. Do everybody a favor by clearly delineating between storage hardware revenues (DAS, SAN, NAS), storage software revenues and storage services revenues. As for Gartner's numbers, I believe EMC includes high end Symmetrix systems with their own NAS numbers thereby inflating their results. Ahh, it doesn't take long for the familiar EMC-cheats argument to appear. You don't even know how the Celerra sells yet you keep on parroting the same old NTAP party line. LOL. Try understanding the very large Symmetrix installed base (40,000+ Symms sold over 12 years), the typical customer depreciation period (4-6 years) and the way Celerra HighRoad and the stand-alone Celerra SE sell for different applications before you do any more parroting, will you? The Celerra sells for around $200,000-$300,000 per 14 clustered file servers. On a like for like basis, I don't think you'll find any analysts or market researchers that will say EMC is gaining share from NTAP in NAS.... What about Gartner and IDC? By the way, from the syllogisms that pepper your arguments, I gather that you are just making up your own numbers? LOL. NTAP sells a stand-alone NAS box only. EMC sells a high-end NAS gateway (Celerra HighRoad), a high-end stand-alone NAS box (Celerra SE) and a mid-range stand-alone NAS box (Clariion). Your problem is that you didn't even know the difference. NTAP doesn't have a NAS gateway that competes with Celerra HighRoad which has nearly 90% of the market. NTAP does have a high-end stand-alone NAS box that competes with Celerra SE, but the high-end stand-alone NAS market is a niche market because customers who are opting to deploy high-end SANs are more likely to deploy different cost-effective combinations of high-end NAS gateways and mid-range stand-alone NAS boxes. So when you say like-for-like basis, you probably mean the mid-range stand-alone NAS box. Well, the Gartner numbers show that EMC grew the mid-range Clariion by more than 107% last year and doubled its market share to 15%. The high-end Celerra SE and the mid-range Clariion NAS were introduced in December 2000. I don't think you want to make the argument that EMC padded its Clariion numbers with Symmetrix revenues now do you? Face the facts. 'Dem facts won't bite. EMC clearly gained market share at NTAP's expense last year in the mid-range stand-alone NAS market. Overall, EMC's wider breadth of NAS hardware and software products allowed it to gain even more market share. The only other vendor to show significant market share gain last year was IBM which doubled its SAN and NAS market share largely by hijacking some of Celerra developers from EMC and otherwise mimicking EMC's product strategy. If you really think EMC is gaining share (for the last two years, no less!!) then why are they in the dumps while NTAP is reporting record gross margins, strong backlog and maintaining profitability? Your views don't jive with the two company's differing results. You mean NTAP is not in the dumps too? LOL. What planet are you from? Do the math. At its peak, NTAP derived 30%-40% of revenues from dotcoms that were doubling their storage requirements EVERY 90 days. That part of NTAP's customer base is kaput. Now they're trying to replace that part of the business with enterprise customers that are doubling their storage requirements ONLY every year. Think Sisyphus. NTAP also employs an asset-light manufacturing model that allows them to post impressive margins but those numbers are meaningless and illusory unless you combine them with industry numbers that show where the industry is headed. When you do that, you will find that NTAP is in worse shape than you think. NTAP totally missed the boat on second generation FC-based SANs. This market is now more than 3x bigger than the NAS market with customers continuing to show a preference for vendors with coherent SAN and NAS product offerings. It is losing market share in NAS hardware AND software based on Gartner and IDC numbers. It has a very immature service organization. As a result, it is in a very poor position to exploit the ongoing convergence of SAN and NAS that will become more evident as corporations start spending again. Unless of course you dare make the slightly moronic argument that a NAS-only vendor like NTAP is in the best position to converge SAN and NAS just because.<g> In sharp contrast, EMC lowered its cost structure while solidifying its grip over networked storage (SANs and NAS) and storage management software despite weathering a vicious price war initiated by IBM in defense of its mainframe upgrade cycle. You may not know that IBM routinely priced Shark 60% to 90% below Symmetrix to win an account at various points during the last 2 years. NTAP was largely insulated from this high-end market price war because it doesn't have a robust enough technology platform that can consolidate multiple server platforms, multiple databases and multiple applications -- OLTP (transactions) and OLAP (analysis). And one of the reasons it doesn't have a robust enough technology platform is that it uses an asset-light manufacturing model to build storage appliances. And round and round it goes. So really, at the end of the day, it's quite understandable why you want to make up your own numbers. Good luck anyway.

To: Elroy who wrote (14250)	5/31/2002 12:53:06 PM
From: JakeStraw	Respond to of 17183

New Industry Report Confirms EMC's Position At Top of Networked Storage Market Leading Analyst Firm Names EMC Revenue Leader in NAS, SAN and New "FAS" markets; Fastest-Growing Storage Segments Are Led by EMC biz.yahoo.com HOPKINTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 31, 2002-- EMC Corporation capitalized on its ability to provide solutions that manage NAS and SAN environments both together and independently, and extended its #1 position in networked storage systems and software during 2001. According to a report(1) issued this week by Gartner Dataquest, EMC led the Fabric Attached Storage (FAS) market by 22.9 percentage points in 2001 with 43.3% revenue share. The analyst firm defines FAS as both SAN (storage area network) and NAS (network-attached storage) implementations. The industry's first independent storage systems market share research using actual full-year 2001 results revealed total FAS market revenue grew 21.6% to $7.6 billion in 2001. Other EMC networked storage highlights from the new report include: #1 in SAN EMC grew its SAN lead in 2001 to 41.9% revenue share. #1 in NAS For the first time, EMC led the total NAS market with 48.5% revenue share in 2001. David Donatelli, EMC Executive Vice President, Storage Platforms Operations, said, "EMC is the only storage partner in the world that customers can rely on for credible experience and technology leadership in the evolving world of networked storage. EMC began investing heavily in both NAS and SAN technology in the middle of the last decade, and today the results of our early commitment are clear. EMC was the only company to achieve double-digit revenue share in both the SAN and NAS segments." Roger W. Cox, Chief Analyst at Gartner Dataquest, said, "NAS and SAN are converging into block and file capable fabric-attached storage. Managing this fabric in a single consolidated application is extremely important. We believe that 70% of all storage will be fabric attached by the middle of this decade." According to Gartner Dataquest, EMC led the total external RAID controller-based storage market in 2001 with 25.3% revenue share. EMC also led the external RAID controller-based storage market for both Unix and Windows NT/2000, with 28% and 28.3% revenue shares, respectively. External RAID controller-based storage revenue for Unix and Windows NT/2000 represented a combined 73.9% of the total external RAID controller-based storage market in 2001. EMC #1 in Networked Storage Management In March, Gartner Dataquest reported(2)that EMC widened its revenue lead as the world's #1 provider of storage management software with 30.4% revenue share in 2001. The findings revealed that EMC also led the Storage Resource Management (SRM) software segment with 43.5% revenue share. SRM software is focused on providing management to various resources on the storage network and includes products that provide data collection and automation agents to consolidate information from multiple server, storage and network platforms. Carolyn DiCenzo, chief analyst of storage management software for Gartner Dataquest, said, "The move to fabric attached storage, with the added storage networking components and the sharing of storage resources among servers, applications and business units, had increased the management complexity. This has resulted in greater demand for resource management products that allow for central administration and automated management of a network's storage resources."