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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (119007)	5/20/2002 12:22:14 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Still, in the real world, where a lot of owners own public companies, the purchase of a share does not make one "poorer." It is simply an exchange of one form of value for another. Well, actually we can use our Sole Shareholder as a proxy for all shareholders together. For example, one might be the left hip pocket, another the right hip pocket, another the left front pocket... and so on. In which case it's pretty easy to see that the sum is constant (value of the company), but that individual pockets go up and down. So for one pocket to go up, another must go down. But the fallacy is that each pocket looks at the last transaction as a proxy for its holdings. And at the height of the mania when the left shirt pocket sold one share to the right hip pocket for $200, all the pockets individually added up their net worth at 150 B$ and called themselves Quillionaires. When in fact maybe the whole thing was worth 26 Billion (or less<g>). And so all these pockets "lost" 125 B$ (or more) that they never had in the first place. The shame is, some of 'em banked on it as though it is real while others took it to the bank. When I use the term "Shareholders" in paying the cost, I mean this aggregate collection. Not one individual or another. You think a lot of options issued during the bubble years are going to be exercised? Maybe yes. Qualcomm now trades at $32 or so. To hear people talk about it, there seems to be every expectation that it is a "good" investment. So 10 years from now if it merely was a mediocre investment and gains 7% it will be trading at $64. If it is indeed a "good" investment and gains 15% per year it will be trading at $128. So indeed, assuming Qualcomm is not a terrible investment, several millions of bubble options will rise from below the water line. Not to mention 2-3% per year on an ongoing basis. Of course, I think it's not a good investment at these prices (or I'd be in) and I'm pegging a 10 year price closer to $40 than $100. But even my targets will raise a few soggy bubble options from their watery graves. John