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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51774)5/20/2002 2:01:26 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
I really think it is quite possible that ABX and PDG will get cut in half later this year
we will see
I dont care
except that higher than proper valuations for Barrick might enable them to purchase an unhedged miner using stock swap
that would be horrible for the target and its sholders


JW, At this point, a huge pop in POG is needed for any kind of blowup in companies such as PDG, ABX.
I would not underestimating the management at ABX.

They may buy out unhedged gold producers instead of buying back part of their hedges.
Since no one really has a crystal ball on the price of gold, the management at the potential acquisition has no reason to walk away from any deal...as long as they get a nice premium.

There is an expectation for consolodation in the industry (according to AngloGold--AU).

My preference is also to buy the unhedged miners...as they are the likely targets, not necessarily because of their valuations but because buying such companies also becomes a bit of a "hedge" for abx, pdg, au types.