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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: t2 who wrote (51778)5/20/2002 2:12:08 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
underestimate Barrick management? are you kidding?
surely you jest
Barrick is the most arrogant and stupid of all miners
they have hedged 4.5 years into the future
20% of their hedges are naked shorted option calls on gold futures
any acquisition at this point would have to be hostile
this firm is so stupid, they continue to boast of Premium Sales Program on their website
when excessive hedging will most likely bring about their bankruptcy
their hedges will act like hydrochloric acid on their books

they began to pursue AngloGold last quarter
I believe they have been betrayed by the US Federal Reserve
I believe the FedRes promised them supply
but is now reneging
so Barrick has gone out to find supply, and is failing
failing in a very public way

to get a better idea of the hedging size...
a smaller AngloGold last quarter covered a portion of their forward hedging
they covered an amount of gold production equal to Japanese purchases for the entire year 2001
think about that
these guys have a massive job ahead to remove deadly hedges

the size of miner forward hedging is disastrous, staggering, and destruction to not only the price of gold but the mining supply dynamics

no no no
hedging will destroy at least one excessively hedged miner
and Barrick is tops on the list
Placer Dome is a close second
/ jim