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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (11652)	5/20/2002 2:48:33 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 57684

Lizzie: You may want to ask the question over here... Message 17491681

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (11652)	5/20/2002 4:31:13 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 57684

ORCL Oracle rumor (9.23 -0.33) Hearing Street talk out of the user's conference in Toronto that checks indicate ORCL may come in below consensus for the May qtr; tone from customers still cautious, and near-term sales opportunities still tilting towards upgrades rather than new licenses; while our source believes that the May qtr will be challenging (which has been widely documented), the current price of $9 seems to fully discount results.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (11652)	5/20/2002 4:45:35 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 57684

A very interesting post by Geoff Moore (the author of Crossing The Chasm)... Message 17490596 From G. Moore. Lifted from the NPI board. "Gang, I think we have been scraping along the bottom long enough for us all to take out our gorilla game strategies and dust them off. Here is a thesis I propose we discuss with respect to enterprise software applications. Recovery will come very slowly but also steadily. In this recovery period inertia is a benefit, not a liability. The canonical gorillas have a huge inertia advantage. This should allow them not only to continue to monetize past innovations but to coopt other companies's innovations as well. There are hundreds of single-product companies around that can be either assimilated or duplicated, so there should be no lack of "new stuff" to sell. The critical competitive advantage will be sales channel access to the enterprise customer, and the critical battlefield will be enterprise systems of record -- how many such systems will there be, and who will dominate each one? ERP is the canonical enterprise system of record, specifically the financial systems of record, and SAP dominates. CRM is the second, the customer system of record, and Seibel dominates. Supply Chain Management looked to be the third system of record, but has struggled of late -- not clear if it makes it or not-- will there be a separate supplier system of record? It also appears possible there could be a product system of record (at present the product life-cycle is governed by lots of departmental apps sprinkled through engineering, manufacturing, sourcing, outsourcing, and post-sale servicing), and possibly an employee system of record (if you could do for employees what CRM does for customers, and if companies cared enought to do it). The questions I would like to get input on are these: 1. How much are the inertia and co-opting advantages already priced into the canonical gorilla stocks? Is there an opportunity for significant upside? 2. Does supply chain recover as a third enterprise system of record, and if so, what happens to ITWO and MANU? 3. Is there a gorilla game to play in riding product life-cycle management from the bowling alley to the tornado? Geoff"