Hello Mike, <<Unfortunately ... more like 7 years, perhaps ... 6 ... all structural economic problems ... glossed over and ignored in the meantime ... US stock ... indices ... in preparation for a multi-year … ridiculous and unthinkable new highs ... driven ... by the sharp recovery in ... earnings ... now under way ... end-game ... is the multi-year economic downturn, a la Japan ... may even prove to be the long-forecasted depression>>
Stop it Mike;0) you are scaring the kids who are uniformly not expecting to support the soon-to-be-ex-free-spending and almost-too-late-to-be-responsible baby-boomer in their 20+% below-the-poverty line dotage.
I believe you are right on the reasoning, but off on the timing.
You are alerting the quicker of the soon to be not-so-patriotic boomers to:
(a) start selling now while the selling is still relatively good (given my DJIA target of 5k),
(b) investing the proceeds in non-bubble real estate where and when found,
(c) speculating on the hopefully soon-to-bubble gold,
(d) start saving for the long term, but
(e) forgetting that the long term has been postponed by WAT, such, and whatnot.
<<Japan>> has recently (I am told that NHK TV had done a short blurb) discovered an inevitable problem - someone had cancelled the long term altogether, after postponement for a decade.
The Japanese residential housing demand has started its cannot-be-avoided and demographically-driven decline, and the previously issued 100-year mortgages, along with the more numerous 10-year ones are sinking deeper into organic plant nutrients.
Japan aims to show the world how to come to terms with the end without repentance for past wrongs.
The US, however different from Japan and infinitely more flexible, has paralleled Japan's fondness for bubbly hubris.
Both nations lowered the cost of money through artificial means; Japan by their lemming-daisy-chain group capitalism, and the US by a-natural acts of officialdom out to prove their god-like perfection, swap-derivative-enabled omnipotence, and accounting-regulation-aided borrower cheating at all and every level.
Both nations released massive liquidity beyond what the true economy required, resulting in wasteful misallocated of resources. In any case, both states gave birth to bubbles of awesome dimensions.
The bubbles busted and are still bursting; as inevitable as the moon rose yesterday and will rise tomorrow. The resultant clear mistreatment of capital has a price that only will become clear long after the initial bursting.
The US bubbles in equity, real estate, currency start bursting now, not 7 years from now. You know the market looks forward.
<<... no secular bull in gold ... short term rush by the lemmings into what appears to be hot>>
Come on Mike, cut the CNBC dramatics and do not sniff at a present that is a gold boom!
Take charge of unpolluted money in the honest kingdom! It will be sometime before the next abracadabra opportunity shows up.
This 'lemming run' is excellent to participate in when it finally gets underway, and until we figure out what the lemmings will do next, hopefully before they do it.
This gold thing, in fact, is Softbank/Yahoo II, the Sequel. My sell-point, as before, will be when my NAV rises by 50% as a result of current positioning:0)
I think the rush just got started, by the lead lemmings wanting to avoid the decapitating and sausage-making machinery that will turn what savings they have remaining into something less destructible and at the same time more malleable.
I do not believe it is too late to buy gold or even gold shares. We have only heard the signal to start running. The crowds have not started with the truly frenzied capital reallocation yet.
In any case, there is no particular point to trade ones total position from this point on, because I believe we are at the start of frenzy, and even though I hate to utter the sentence, but, 'you got to be in to be in' is succinct and will do for now.
<<The apparent momentum in gold will completely evaporate by the fourth quarter>>
Yes, but not in the way you mean. The real momo will materialize when the apparent momentum vaporizes, in fourth quarter of 2003.
<<... a la Japan ... may ... be ... depression, severe enough to warm the cockles of the most dessicated doomster's heart>>
... here you may be on to something, but …
<<I trust you will enjoy it>>
... while correct, is wrong. Perhaps you misunderstand me.
I enjoy the challenge of navigation, not finishing first or ever, and certainly not the sight of someone else's boat going down.
I reveal my allocation, losses and gains (pitiful as they are), and present my case, so that others' can reference what I do, right, wrong, and horribly.
Chugs, Jay
P.S. I apologize for repeating myself …
Message 16830281
BTW, the Collapse Script remains intact ...
washingtonpost.com
Steel Dispute Escalates In Asia
Beijing Follows Washington With Protectionist Measures
By Clay Chandler
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, May 23, 2002; Page E01 |
