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To: Joe Stocks who wrote (39770)5/21/2002 3:32:37 PM
From: Mark Adams  Respond to of 53068
 
Ouch. That means whoever bought the IPO probably shorted the common to offset the risk of decline. Or married puts or something along those lines.

Edit:
If I got the math correct, then CMP has an embedded liability of 34.24-16.92 or $17.32. Using CMS current quote. But you are promised 41.50 in 2004, which is more than 34.24. 41.50-17.32 is 24.18- and the current CMP quote is 21.26, so you are looking at a cash call soon, but a longer term return of 24.18-21.26, or $2.92.

Perhaps simpler,

Capital invested (34.24+21.26-16.92)-> 38.58, with 41.50 returned 2004 gives a return of 2.92, or 2.92/38.58-> ~9.2%

Complex, yes. Those numbers don't even account for the variable ratio. And not much of a risk premium. Unless the ratio improves on this. I think you'd need a pretty good spreadsheet to model this. Probably not a free lunch, but also not likely a total ripoff.