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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wharf Rat who wrote (51869)5/22/2002 9:10:51 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
awaiting Asian gold leapfrog, winner exports to USA
gonna be the biggest fireworks ever seen later this year
and all next year

in the 1990's a currency devaluation leapfrog game was played
Thailand, Korea, Taiwan, China, Japan are principal players
also Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia
they would print new Thai Bhats for example, and buy USTBonds
they learned to print currency from the USA
that would devalue their Bhat currency, and provide some impostor reserves for their screwed banking system
(imagine a piece of debt serving as banking reserve capital)
the currency shift enabled an advantage to export to USA
imagine the financial lunacy to print your own reserves
and then build an entire economy upon it

now the leapfrog game readies for the next phase
the reserves will be converted to gold gradually
or will it become a race out of control?
the nation which drives up gold the most will win the game
at least in their eyes
they will win the right to continue exporting to the USA
but at least their banking system will be fixed in the process
it will take time

imagine the leapfrogging to take place with so many players
some have called the 1990's the "Currency Devaluation Raceway"
whoever devaluated the most gained export advantage
now it shifts to the gold scene
as gold slowly shifts into its rightful place as world currency reserve
like everything else, I expect it to get out of control

these Asians are incredibly competitive
they learned the sick destructive game of debasing currency well
if not careful, they will earn themselves a decade of misery
by not participating in the gold leapfrog game upcoming
if they succeed in shifting to gold as banking reserve, salvation of banking system is their prize
but not without some pain to get there
those nations which do it right will become an example

the great gold leapfrogging is soon to begin
Asians must continue to export goods to USA
their entire economies have become totally dependent upon it
this time around though, they will store the surplus in gold
no nation will want to eagerly forfeit their export advantage
so a race will ensue to drive up the price of gold

whatever price of gold you think is the height limit target
multiply it by 3

the only problem above is that .....
THE USA MUST RAISE GOLD THE MOST IN ORDER TO RECTIFY THE $400 BILLION PER YEAR TRADE DEBT
and the Asians will desperate block the effort
by driving up gold higher in their native currencies
gonna be wild
/ jim