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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Richnorth who wrote (85633)5/21/2002 7:55:34 PM
From: E. Charters  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116822
 
Noooo.. FFT can be done quite practicably on your Excel spread sheet for large time series in the blink of an eye. Trouble is how to interpret it. Then you are back to looking at chicken guts and scratching your head.

Your 1.6 GHZ Korea scrap PC is faster than a Cray anyway. Lots cheaper anyway. 24 hours computer time cost you next to nothing. In 1987 a PC was 1/100 as fast as an IBM 360. Now they are 400 times faster. And if you run Linux that is 1600 times faster. So you have on your desktop 10 to 20 times the computing horsepower of the fastest mainframe business computer circa 1960. And you can run it flat out on simulations for days at a time. That alone multiplies your computing power. Get together with your neighbours and share cycle time and you can figure out all the possible configurations of all the atoms in the universe if you need to know.

I was doing a graph on gold in constant dollars. I had a bea-u-tiful predictive curve that made sense. I forget now just which way it went. Then my computer crashed. Back to the grindstone. If I could just remember those inputs. Median cycle time was 46 years, so it compares well to Kondratieff or Elliot. Right now we are in a low on a short wave. Its like this. Up 29, down 27, up 27, down 23, up 15, down ~32, up 13 ~down 20. We are at the end of 20. We have 5 more years of down on the average. On the other hand who can tell?

EC<:-}