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To: Les H who wrote (1972)	5/22/2002 12:19:54 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 29596

Stockmarket Cycles update for Tuesday, May 21st The stock market saw some follow-through to the downside today, but is not clear yet whether this decline will accelerate from this point. We believe the odds and the technical patterns suggest the probability of a market rally from this point. Today, the McClellan Oscillator approached an oversold reading with a -92.7. Despite that fact, there are mixed short-term signals because the Open 10 TRIN at 0.91 and the VIX Index at only 22.56 suggest there is far too much complacency to support a market bottom of any importance. Looking at the price projections, there are mixed readings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average still has a nominal 20 week downside projection to 9355, but the other indexes are not confirming so far. In fact, although both the New York Composite Index and the S&P 500 are close to invalidating their upside projections, those projections remain in effect through today's market action. Here are today's Trading Index moving averages: 10 day 1.12 Open 10 0.91 New 10 0.84 Open 30 1.12 TRIN 5 5.33 The Open 10 is firmly in overbought territory for a bear market, although the Open 30 TRIN remains quite oversold on an intermediate-term basis. The bottom line is we believe the market is at or approaching an area of potential vulnerability to the downside, but there are still contradictions to that sentiment. Mutual-fund switchers-both Rydex switchers and Fidelity select switchers are in cash positions. All mutual-fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and each market evening. Stock-index futures traders-there were no trades today. We will stand aside again tomorrow The XAU continues its upward march as it comes closer to the upside window of our projection at the 93 level. The bonds are now giving mixed projections. They have at least temporarily invalidated their downside nominal 10 week projections to between 97-98 and still have nominal 40 week projections to at least 103 1/4 and as high as 106 1/2. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow. stockmarketcycles.com

To: Les H who wrote (1972)	5/22/2002 1:53:18 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29596

Swing waves traders-talk.com

To: Les H who wrote (1972)	5/25/2002 12:24:53 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29596

5-day and 10-day TRIN for Friday May 24, 2002 5-day TRIN 10-day TRIN 10-day A/D 10-day U/D 21-day A/D 21-day U/D DJIA/NYSE 1.13 1.12 1.06 1.18 1.00 0.95 OTC 1.50 1.45 0.96 1.21 0.88 0.81 S&P 500 1.24 1.18 1.12 1.30 0.91 0.89 S&P 400 1.14 1.13 1.01 1.05 0.87 0.85 S&P 100 1.43 1.28 1.15 1.42 0.92 0.95 Nasdaq 100 1.03 1.30 1.10 1.34 0.73 0.81 10-day TRIN = 10-day MA of (A/D divided by U/D) 10-day Open TRIN = 10-day A/D ratio divided by 10-day U/D ratio TRading INdex overbought <= 0.75 oversold >= 1.25 Adv/Dec ratio overbought >= 1.25 oversold <= 0.75 Up/Dn vol ratio overbought >= 1.25 oversold <= 0.75