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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3240)	5/23/2002 5:12:44 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 95622

Gottfried, Al the statement "what you see is fabs trying to estimate end user demand" is flatly wrong IMHO. We are in the age of INTEGRATED SUPPLY CHAINS. For this reason the stock to sales ratio remained quite low even in the boom (almost 40% lower than in the 60ies). And there are big pockets of strength. Just look at "hot" industries, vertical markets where demand is nothing short of an "explosion". Want examples ? No problem: consumer electroncis (look at ESST, ZRAN and others), automtive (look at IRF) - even sectors like industrial equipmet (power semis !) are suddenly red hot (ok not yet white hot). So yes, the current market climate ("oh no - nothing but down") might share your stance but the fundamental facts are totally out of sync with this bleak picture. Eventually investors minds will be cleared and return to normalcy will be in order. Alistair, you are right there will be "tradable movements". However this raises the question about your investment style. If you are a scalper, swing trader or anything like that and happy with $1 gain on a $20 stock it's fine. I'm a different type, a tad more patient and always looking for value.. you are right, some ratios (we could argue however what ratios would warrant examinations) are a tad high. I would contend that there are pockets of undervaluations as well. let's see CROSSY