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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (63974)	5/23/2002 9:47:42 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

OT, Jacob and Thread, Re ALTR, XLNX, NVDA, FO Stocks: This from briefing today, just thought someone might be interested. I just took my first nibble at NVDA today. I own JDSU, so like the positive comments on the optical stocks, even if they are wrong <g>. I have some ALTR, however. Opticals vs. Semis : Based on Bernstein's analysis of the historical trading multiples, firm favors optical networking and components cos over semi cos; believes that JDSU, GLW, and AGR.S are trading at below their long term trading multiple with ALTR and XLNX trading at a "much higher price than it is warranted." Current P/S (relative to S&P500) of JDSU, GLW, AGRa are below their projected long term levels, Bernstein expects as they emerge from current trough levels, P/S should overshoot their projected P/S levels. Nvidia (NVDA) 35.72 -2.33: Today's 6% decline in Nvidia shares is completely understandable when you consider that all the company managed to do in Q103 was grow yoy revenues and earnings by a paltry 142% and 123%, respectively... Come on fellas, let's get your act together! This triple-digit growth stuff is no good because it means that future growth has to slow... Sure enough, slower growth is exactly what the street is projecting for this leading maker of graphics and multimedia processing technology... For the full fiscal year, sales are seen growing at a sluggish 72% rate, while earnings growth is projected at a pedestrian 59%... And to think management had the audacity to be "extremely pleased with our results." With such a pollyanna attitude is it any wonder that management also failed miserably in playing Wall Street's expectations game, in which companies low ball forward estimates in order to post better-than-expected results... Apparently, Huang & Co. just don't get it - as company guided Q2 estimates slightly higher... Guiding future estimates higher, beating current quarter consensus estimates, posting triple-digit revenue/earnings growth, stealing market share -- why in the heck would anybody want to invest in a company that boasted such modest accomplishments... Suppose we're just contrarians, but despite these horrible developments we kind of like the stock... Paying 20x estimated earnings for a company expected to post average annual growth of 25% over the next several years might seem reckless, but every now and then we like to live life on the edge... Who knows, maybe the weak dollar combined with the fact that NVDA derives roughly 80% of their sales from overseas, will enable the company to post better-than-expected results in future quarters as well... And maybe at some point in time the market will once again look upon growth as a good thing... Damn, if Huang's optimism didn't get to us. -- Robert Walberg, Briefing.com