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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (119273)	5/23/2002 5:09:51 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

David, << I can't imagine Qualcomm being that optimistic given their handset forecast for the year. >> Check out this even more optimistic statement: <g> Taking into account Qualcomm's own figures for handset shipments this year, then there is a real chance that the subscriber base will pass 200 million by the end of this year. >> CDMA Subscriber Base Passes 120 Million Mark Cellular News 23rd May, 2002 The CDMA Development Group (CDG) has said that there were more than 120 million CDMA subscribers worldwide at the end of the first quarter of 2002; of the 120 million, nearly 8 million were using CDMA2000 1X. The CDMA subscriber base has grown by 30 million, or 33% in the past year. "CDMA continues to expand rapidly around the world and is leading in 3G adoption," said Perry LaForge, executive director of the CDG. "The upcoming months look very promising for CDMA, and we expect to see a significant increase in subscribers with the continued commercial deployment of 3G CDMA2000 services." The largest CDMA subscriber base was in North America, where there were nearly 53 million users, representing more than 60% of the total number of subscribers in the region. Latin America reached more than 22 million subscribers, a 39% growth over the past year, and CDMA penetration in Asia grew to nearly 44 million subscribers. CDMA2000 subscribers are growing at a rate of more than 1 million per month. Taking into account Qualcomm's own figures for handset shipments this year, then there is a real chance that the subscriber base will pass 200 million by the end of this year. - Eric -

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (119273)	5/28/2002 6:25:25 PM
From: Rocket Scientist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

The 170M Cum CDMA sub forecast is on page 8 of this presentation qualcomm.com It's said to be an average of three external forecasts ranging from one to eight months old On page 7, they present forecasts for CDMA handset sales. The 2002 average (of four external forecasts ranging in age from 1 to four months) is said to be 81M 170M seems a very unrealistic forecast for y/e 2002. For the last six quarters net worldwide CDMA adds have ranged from 6M to 10M per Qrtr. During the same period, Q's MSM chipset output has ranged from 13-16M. To actually add 50M net subscribers in the next 3 Qtrs would require a dramatic increase in Q's production rate, much lower than historic churn, or a big drop in Q's chip market share; the first two aren't very likely, and the third isn't particularly desireable (or likely, imo)