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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3242)	5/23/2002 8:14:53 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

RtS, You are really getting "gloomy".<gg> We threaders need to keep an "eye on you".<gg> <<At this point I am planning to sell into any rallies until September at least.>> Another subject - I assume you noticed the 2 comments on NVLS today. <<1:24PM Piper Jaffray cautious on semi equipment, Novellus : We are hearing that USB Piper Jaffray is out with a cautious call on the semi equipment sector; supplier contacts saying that Dec qt shipments are tracking flat with Sept for deposition and edge equipment, yet the Street expects growth of 10-15%; says AMAT will be impacted, but is most cautious on NVLS, which firm believes is expensive and losing share to AMAT (NVLS gives mid-qtr update next Tues). 12:48PM Novellus (NVLS) 46.48 -1.89: In company's mid-quarter update on May 28, Prudential believes NVLS could reiterate order guidance of $250 mln or better (up 43% qtr/qtr). Firm's checks suggest that customer breadth is improving, as opposed to primarily focused to the two major foundries and 2-3 DRAM manufacturers. Pru says its checks suggest visibility could have improved as manufacturing slots are full through Sept/Oct given the surge in orders, and also indicate NVLS has received new wins, such as at STMicroelectronics 300mm facility. Overall, firm thinks call will be constructive and is reiterating Buy rating and $67 price target... NVLS currently down 3.9%.>> I have certainly heard different opinions before, but these guys are not even on the same "planet". Don

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3242)	5/23/2002 9:08:57 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

RE: "Opticals vs. Semis : Based on Bernstein's analysis of the historical trading multiples, firm favors optical networking and components cos over semi cos; believes that JDSU, GLW, and AGR.S are trading at below their long term trading multiple with ALTR and XLNX trading at a "much higher price than it is warranted." Current P/S (relative to S&P500) of JDSU, GLW, AGRa are below their projected long term levels, Bernstein expects as they emerge from current trough levels, P/S should overshoot their projected P/S levels." I hope Bernstein comments on the fact that INTC moved into tunable lasers with a tiny $50M cost. The real story is if JDSU et. al. are future toast, not some imaginary "projected long term levels". My experience has been that when INTC moves into a market, the competition usually leaves the business, voluntarily or otherwise; AMD excepted, of course.