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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff who wrote (897)	5/23/2002 9:13:00 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Jeff, when I looked at this in early April, I imagined a drop into the end of Dec, a sharp rally in January on seasonal strength, a drop into March, April Rally, and a drop into the ultimate low in the fall. Sound familiar? That should also dovetail with the economic situation pretty decently. The one problem with all of this is the mid-term election this year. Here's the S&P lows during mid-term elections. 1970 Low - May 26 1974 Low - Oct. 4 1978 Low - March 1 1982 Low - Aug 9, 12 1986 Low - Jan. 23 1990 Low - Oct. 11 1994 Low - April 4 1998 Low - Jan. 12 The 1970-1982 dates were during a bear, so maybe those are the more significant ones. We've got 2-lows in Oct., but otherwise we've got January, March, April, May, and August. However, this is not a statistically significant sample. Note, though, there are no lows in November or December. We did have some re-tests when we had October lows, however. These dates are all the lowest lows of the year. Just an exercize that seems to have proved nothing, I guess. There is a pattern of 5-months difference in the first 4-dates, but those are all in a bear market. I'm not sure we can compare the 1998 low and a 2002 low. However, it works out to June. That time period keeps coming up, doesn't it? Maybe we don't have a lower low than the coming June/July low this year, and maybe that Sandspring pop into November works well after all.

To: Jeff who wrote (897)	5/24/2002 9:21:18 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

I'm starting to get intrigued by that triangle forming off the Sept. 11 low through the 1560 COMP low (lower line, and upper line the falling resistance off the Jan high). These lines are converging, so the best assumption right now is that we play within these lines through the end of month/beginning of month strength before dropping through the bottom of the triangle. Many of the indices have similar structures also. If we drop from COMP 1660 or so to COMP 1540, we could be there in a week after the June 3rd turn. That could set up a final options related ramp to test the bottom of the triangle before the final plunge to the Sept. lows. Enlightenment. Wow.