To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51998 ) 5/24/2002 2:39:32 AM From: stockman_scott Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232 Analysis: Dollar doesn't worry Asian banks By Sonia Kolesnikov UPI Business Correspondent From the Business & Economics Desk Published 5/23/2002 3:21 PM SINGAPORE, May 23 (UPI) -- While global financial markets still hotly debate how far the mighty dollar may drop, Asian central banks appear unconcerned for now about the gains their currencies are making. Increased concerns about another terrorist attack in the United States triggered currency traders to reassess the greenback's former strength. And some signs in recent weeks suggest a slight uptick in European and Japanese economies, further encouraging investors to shore up euros and yen by selling off dollar holdings. Some Asian countries may actually welcome the dollar's weakness as a chance to build up their international reserves. As long as Asian currencies do not gain against those of their main trading partners, there is no reason for concern, analysts said. The international dollar weakness is dominating Asian foreign exchange performance, with most regional currencies registering strong gains in the last few weeks. Most pundits have forecast that the dollar will drop farther, especially against the yen. Over the last three months, the dollar has fallen by 7 percent against the Japanese yen to 124 yen and by 6 percent against the euro to 1.08 euros, an eight-month low. This prompted the Japanese central bank to step into currency markets Wednesday, selling its own currency to cushion the dollar's fall. "If the (Japanese) ministry of finance is trying to pace the speed of decline in dollar/yen, we applaud it. However, if it is trying to reverse the course, we believe it is simply wasting its efforts," as the dollar will weaken further regardless of intervention, said Lee Boon Keng, a DBS economist. Past history shows central bank interventions cannot contain a currency's gain or drop. Between June and September 1999, the Japanese authorities intervened three times with over $50 billion. But during that period, the yen gained strength against the dollar, dropping from 125 yen to the dollar to 105 yen. Analysts attribute the dollar's current fall to a combination of dollar weakness as well as yen strengthening. David Simmonds, a currency strategist at Citibank, said he expects yen to strengthen slightly against the U.S. dollar over the next two months. "That's partly a generally soft dollar international story and a view that the U.S. is progressively a less dominant destination for portfolio and (mergers and acquisitions) capital flows," Simmonds said. "But it's also partly a bit of yen strength, as there is a general perception amongst investors that the economy is getting a bit of a cyclical lift. Investors are quite enthusiastic about the Japanese stock market," he added. The benchmark Nikkei stocks index has risen 16 percent in the last three months, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen less than 3 percent in the same period. As a result of the recent currencies developments, verbal caution from regional central banks perennially hits the wires, but seems aimed at limiting the speed of regional currency gains rather than pursuing an aggressive change of direction. "I don't think Asian central banks will be bother to see their currencies rally for now," Simmonds noted, pointing that what was more important for the regional economies was the pace and strength of the U.S. economic recovery. Citibank sees the dollar falling toward between 120-123 yen, but it is then expected to bounce back, and the bank has a 12-month target of 130 yen. Asian central banks will take the opportunity of a falling dollar to further build on their international reserves, which are considered by all accounts to be at already healthy levels. However, the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 clearly demonstrated that billions of dollars in reserves can quickly fall to zero, and that notion is still fresh in many central bankers' minds. DBS economist Wong Chee Seng noted that the strengthening of local currencies could raise concerns over the risk of losing exports competitiveness. But on the other hand, the lower dollar will help Asian central banks keep their interest rates low as long as possible, a much welcome move. For the most part, regional currencies have not appreciated much in trade-weighted terms during the recent upward move, which would be a problem for exports competitiveness within the region. This means all currencies are appreciating at the same time. "An exception is the Korean won, but this we think is well justified on fundamentals. Korea is the economy with a looming inflation issue and thus is earliest into tightening. A stronger exchange rate can ease the burden on higher policy rates in the overall monetary mix," Simmonds said. Analysts are quick to point out that the situation will be beneficial for Asian currencies, as long as the dollar does not collapse, which at this stage is not a likely scenario. But such collapse could be in the cards if there is a combination of poor U.S. corporate earnings, stalling in the growth recovery and a divestment of funds in the United States. In the near-term, a decline in the dollar will make U.S. exports more competitive, supporting the economic recovery. At the same time, it could bring inflationary pressures, leading to higher interest rates. Copyright © 2002 United Press International