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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (52033)	5/24/2002 1:38:10 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

setting up 3rd triple-digit Dow downer day this week still searching for that positive growing MINDSET in sentiment cannot find it yet seeing very mixed potentially confusing signals on economy inventories are clearly becoming drawn down productivity is clearly doing a post-bubble peak durable goods orders are on the rise housing is hanging on still business investment may be slowly rising but layoffs are unrelenting in their weekly volume pricing power is non-existent worker health costs are also unrelenting in their rise and insurance costs are up on a widespread basis while energy costs are rising I think this adds up to a Pyrrhic Victory for GreekSpasm he bought himself an economic recovery but nobody seems likely to benefit from it after many companies have been nearly killed and many households are near the brink by the way, I dont believe Leading Economic Indicators lend much credence to any recovery claim the LEI being used now are the same tired indicators developed in the 1970's they did a lousy job of predicting the economic falloff in 2000 instead, I turn to the Bond Yield Curve its steep upward slope indicates Price Inflation in 2-4 years one more year of this Balls-To-The-Wall monetary pumppriming by the Fed and we should see price inflation in spades by sometime next year I no longer think price inflation is a threat for 12 months the Deflation from Debt Collapse is far bigger a threat now more probable is an Inflationary Recession next year GreekMan's monetary pumping will end up in the wrong places it will find its way into commodities since new loan creation will be totally imprudent / jim