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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (147473)	5/25/2002 5:32:45 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1580148

Re <<........trying to play the markets long isn't working well at all although shorts haven't been doing that much better either the last couple of months. >> That's right, you got to do both. And be nimble. When news is good, short. I thought CSCO's numbers were a complete fraud and AMAT had a pretty disappointing forecast of orders. Mani and TGPTNDR as well, I am doing my first short as a paper trade.........TARO. It had started to recover from a sharp pull back but is running out steam with volume declining. Stochastically, its been overbought for a week or so. Has a small gap to fill around $25 where, coincidentally it has decent support....will cover there if volume picks up. TARO also can be effected negatively by doings in Israel.....its an Israeli company. Let me know what you think. As for CSCO and AMAT, I am not sure what you meant by fraud but at least with CSCO, I think their improved earnings come from stealing market share although their better margins surprised me. Nonetheless, telecom is still road kill. As for AMAT, I would not be surprised if they are stealing market share as well......this week's NVLS meeting with analysts may give us a better clue.........however, even if AMAT's earnings are real, the stock price is already overvalued so where do you go from here with it. That's a long way of explaining what you might have meant by calling their earnings fraud. Just for the record there are a couple of long time hedge fund traders that are calling a bottom in tech. One of them is Doug Kass. His call is that the bottom is near and he's buying. He's quick to point out that he's investing, not trading in tech at this point. Further, he cautions that he doesn't expect significant returns on his tech investments anytime soon..........like this year. For the record, he called the top on tech in Jan, 2000 and called the top in AOL almost two years ago. Currently, he thinks AOL is a good buy at $19. I concur and am buying some for my 401 account. One last point........I think we all need to remember that tech is not monolithic, and that different sectors of tech are in different places with the bottoming process. Its hard to remember when the Naz smells so bad as it seems to do 24/7 nowadays. <g> Let me know what you think of my first short.........and be gentle. ted