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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cage Rattler who wrote (85807)	5/25/2002 10:15:59 AM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116817

Hmmm....so you want to come in the $200 turtle door you say?<grin> Well, there is a whole lot easier way to do that than to subscribe to the turtle newsletter. Have you ever heard of Linda Bradford Raschke and a book called Street Smarts? The turtle+1 trade in there is the closest I ever came to a holy grail trade...might want to check it out and learn that skillset. Glad you had a mind bender doing the google Elliott+Gann search. Wondered why I hadn't heard back from you<g> g_t

To: Cage Rattler who wrote (85807)	5/25/2002 6:14:03 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116817

Don't forget that Turtle trader, while it reputes to make sense, heavily critizes Warren Buffet. That is like a man who can only walk criticizing the world's fastest runner. Everyone says there way is the right way. But the right way is a way you can afford, that you can understand, and above all makes money. They are right in saying you cannot make money taking control of companies, but investing in trends requires knowledge you cannot easily have. When that trend will change. Fundamental worth also requires the assumption that the market is flawed. And it also requires the knowledge that the TA trader tells you he can figure out. Where it's going. So all trading is the same. Its a bet on the market and the stock's or commodities place in it. External reasons or trends its all the same. One is just a different oracle of change. If the reasons are wrong or the picture is wrong then the fundamentals won't work. But the price is never "wrong". TA must be the starting point or you don't know where you are going. One thing you can see is the industrial trend. In fact it is not too hard to see what is coming overall. What is hard to see is where your stock is in this trend. And also it is hard to see when the changes will come. It was easy to see that the tech market would implode. It was difficult to say exactly when. The Nasdaq falling to 1/3 its level was a no brainer. Which year was hard. I thought 1999 was the break. I was just about right. I also saw that a resurgence would happen. I also saw that gold would return. But doing something about it is another matter. John the Baptist did not get paid either. It is plain we cannot continue to expand economically. In order to do so, we need markets. These world markets are not well. There are lies aplenty. There is no boom in housing trades. There are home renovations going on, but it is no massive boom. It's a blip. The only question we have to ask is are we on a short wave, or 35 year cycle or a long cycle. This will tell us how short the depression is going to be. Depressions contrary to what people tell you are nothing to be afraid of. They are periods of massive industrial expansion, cheap labour, and low prices. This is not bad. Without comprehensive plan to maximize employment and investment in earnings based industry, the social fallout can be high. My feeling is that the 1930's cycle is repeating. We are at about 1932 in those terms. This would indicate that a dry spell in industrial production will continue for about 5 years. The following 5 years after that will be better growth and perhaps new technology. In any depression some industries actually prosper. These are the core production industries. But don't expect a mirror of 1930. It may not repeat in any exact way. In 1929 the market crashed and stocks fell to 10% or less of their value. Only ten percent of the people were in the stock market. Today that figure is 80% of the population. Losses are much heavier today. There was a banking contraction where the bankers grabbed all the stock and refused to loan money. The government was partly to blame as the Fed had been installed. Today bankers trade all the stock. They march in lock step with the Fed. If the government does not want the people to get money, they won't get it. Today the crunch is not margin but cash. Cash does not fit needs. The government is hand to mouth, and the people are in constant debt. (Taxes to support inflated government area t astronomical levels. They cannot get any higher. In ONtario 1,000,000 people work for all levels of government. 1 in every 8 people of all ages.) Today, credit and the money supply are the bubble. Stock prices are only part of the problem. I see the bottom of this trend at about 2004 to 2005. If we use the 35.6 year cycle forward from 1930 we get year 2002 february. In 1929 a new IPO, Lakeshore Gold Mines in Kirkland Lake came on the market. The market went to rock bottom. Lakeshore Gold Mines went to 65.0 dollars a share. It made Harry Oakes the richest man in the world. He had got his street money from the Jewish Mafia in Kirkland and when he tried with British Military Intelligence to interfere with their attempt to start gambling operations in Bermuda, they killed him. Lakeshore Mines mined 16 million ounces of gold and paid dividends for many years. It's technicians standardized the method of fire assaying that is used throughout the world today. In the late 1980's a Canadian contracting company with Dennis Sheehan as a consultant tried to reopen the mine. The mined briefly and some stopes ran 50.0 ounces per ton! Much gold was stolen from the workings. Sheehan told me that the mistake Dynatec made was to go in an try a salvage operation. He felt the should have paid ten million dollars and restarted the mine properly. In the 1970's the Kerr Addison people told me that they felt the Federal government was against mining. The feds has blocked Kerr's expansion by blocking federal riparian and air permits that would have allowed economic production levels that Teal had told me would be necessary to mine the gold that was equal to what they had already taken out, some 12 million ounces. This gold was never mined. The production levels we are talking about is in the 20,000 TPD range. The chief obstacles beyond getting the 300million to proceed and the engineering to do it, are political. We need a government that thinks it ok to employ people at what industry knows it can make money at. In the meantime we sit on our hands. Money departs offshore. Canadians get poor. EC<:-}