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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (119316)	5/25/2002 1:04:59 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

L., << Even marginmike thought that $55 was a buy and $60 something was a sell. >> That's a good long term view. <g> He sure was right about the $60 being a sell part. << Seems to me that since Q4 01 Q's propsects have only improved. >> Sadly It doesn't reflect in Qualcomm's forward guidance, or those of other players in the sector. In December there was pessimism about CQ1 & CQ2 but optimism about H2. Qualcomm had recently guided to nice positive top line growth. December was a bust. The optimism for H2 (for the sector & for Qualcomm) has significantly moderated since. Optimists can be optimistic, but even optimists are looking for increased visibility on the sector going forward, and not getting any. which is not to say that we won't get better visibility or signs of an uptrends later this year. << Seems to me that since Q4 01 Q's propsects have only improved. >> For FY02 & FY03? You and I must have listened to different year ending guidance. << W-CDMA is going to be opened in parts of Europe in the fall and the royalties and maybe even the chip sales are on their way >> Later in the fall and fewer in the fall than was once expected, both in Europe and Asia, unfortunately. Not a lot of W-CDMA base stations going in this year, which means there won't be a lot of handsets, which means there won't be a lot of chipsets. It is hard to say at this juncture to what degree cap ex will free up for 2003. Even if cap ex frees up it will take time to buildout, and one heck of a lot of debugging will be going on all through 2003. Uncertainty for the balance of this fiscal and next ... ... and yes, I'm aware of all those marvellous, nifty, and miraculous 1xRTT wonders that will potentially happen when 1xRTT finally makes it outside the confines of Korea and Japan .... and I'm (still) waiting to see them, and I'm cautiously optimistic about how potential users react. Best, - Eric -