To: kormac who wrote (10072 ) 5/28/2002 9:01:41 PM From: kormac Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206209 From Stratfor: Tight Strategic Reserves Could Limit Indo-Pak War 28 May 2002 As tensions with Pakistan grow, the government of India is considering increasing its 15-day strategic oil reserve to 40 or 45 days' worth of supplies, International Oil Daily reported May 23. It would take months of preparation, however, before India could even store the additional reserves, and current supplies could sustain the country only through a short war with Pakistan. New Delhi has debated beefing up strategic oil supplies several times during the past year. Petroleum Minister Ram Naik said May 21 that the country had sufficient reserves in the event of war -- a statement most likely meant to calm fears of an oil crisis as tensions with Pakistan escalate. Nevertheless, building up reserves would help safeguard the country's stability in case of any emergency. With more than 1 billion people, India is the world's sixth-largest energy consumer, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, with oil accounting for 30 percent of its energy usage. India imports 70 percent of its crude oil supply, with net oil imports in 2001 amounting to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd). The country's dependence on oil will continue to grow. The Financial Times reported in January that India will need to import about 80 percent of its crude by 2006-07; it imported only 45 percent in 1990-91. Projected growth in population and urbanization levels will further raise the demand for oil. And, unlike developed countries -- which long have struggled for fuel efficiency -- India has yet to begin addressing wasteful usage. ============ Seppo