To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (30744 ) 5/26/2002 4:17:15 PM From: Nadine Carroll Respond to of 281500 Followup on Saudi "pressure" on Arafat -- Ze'ev Schiff says it's failed. Surely this analysis is simplistic -- in whose mind was the "pressure" supposed to be measured by results ? I don't think that was ever the Saudis' idea, though it might have been George Bush's. You can call me cynical. But compare this analysis to the Saudi spokesmen announcing in today's NY Times article about how Prince Abdullah "delivered" Arafat and thus upheld his end of the bargain. Analysis / Saudi pressure on Arafat has failed By Ze'ev Schiff Saudi pressure on Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, including a personal message from Crown Prince Abdullah, to end the terror strikes of Palestinian suicide bombers in order to bring about a cease-fire, which will then lead to an international conference on the Saudi-Arab peace proposal, has failed. The outcome is that the Saudis cannot uphold their part of the agreement reached by Abdullah and U.S. President George W. Bush. It is also clear to the Saudis that the movement that Arafat heads, Fatah, and its military wing, are directly linked to the terrorism. In other words, Arafat is involved. Moreover, Arafat gave his word to Prince Abdullah to bring about an end to the activities of the suicide bombers. It is now clear that his promises hold no value. This means that Arafat is not only leading the Americans on a merry dance on this issue, but also the Saudis, the Egyptians and Jordanians. As part of the U.S.-Saudi agreement reached during the prince's April visit to America, Israel acquiesced to Bush's request to lift the siege on Arafat's Ramallah compound. The Saudis, for their part, undertook to persuade Arafat to help stop the suicide terrorism. They also pledged to pressure Hamas to stop the attacks period. Hamas has received financial aid from Saudi Arabia for years, including funds for the families of Palestinian shaheeds. The Egyptians and Jordanians were also brought into this agreement. They also promised to help stop the terror operations so that a cease-fire could finally be reached. The Saudis made a similar request of Syrian President Bashar Assad at the Sharm el-Sheikh trilateral summit earlier in the month. It now turns out that the Saudis actually failed also with the Syrians, who are in fact putting pressure on Hamas not to stop the attacks against Israel and even warn that should these activities cease, Damascus will cut off its financial aid to the militant group. Bashar Assad and Yasser Arafat are thus working concurrently to scuttle the U.S-Saudi understanding on terrorist activity. Following the May 7 attack on a Rishon Letzion pool hall, where 15 were killed, the crown prince made an angry telephone call to Arafat. The chairman responded that Hamas and Islamic Jihad were behind the suicide attacks, but it has since emerged that in the following attacks, Tanzim and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, linked to Arafat's own Fatah, were responsible. These two organizations have increased their activities since the end of the IDF's Operation Defensive Wall, including a second attack in Rishon on Wednesday. It is surely clear to Arafat that the escalation in such strikes, especially if there are heavy casualties, will ultimately prompt a harsh response from Israel in the form of a broader military action. Arafat will use this as an excuse to once again put off any discussion on reforming the Palestinian Authority. Not only is this a way to pull the carpet out from under the plans for such changes, but also from out under plans for a regional or international conference on the Middle East. The Saudi and Egyptians will thus have to decide whether to return to their positions as observers of the violent events or to put real pressure on Arafat to make good on his promises to the U.S. and its president. news.haaretz.co.il