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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (13258)	5/25/2002 4:11:29 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Anyone piling in PGO here? Messed with this stock a long time, and it was not a joyful affair. Predicted a long time ago on Yahoo! board it should bottom here, if it in fact bottoms. no.finance.yahoo.com This stock has disappointed so many longs it is hard to believe. Half of me says to just stay away. Other half says otherwise.

To: nspolar who wrote (13258)	5/26/2002 7:49:07 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

ns - IMHO, you still have a little time to buy in droopy. Tired to wait for a loan, they have been placing new shares as crazy and their hedgebook just need another 10 mio. shares to be cleaned. If I am correct, this will be a total dilution of 17%. But June FY can be rewarded by a divvy AND share buybacks are in the work (after next placement <ggg>). Once FY pre-releases are published, droopy should, IMHO and yours <g>, correct back to the prformance of the HUI, which is, on my charts, an easy 8. Have my load already on PAAS and SSRI (in fact, traded SSRI for BAY some time ago as I expected more leverage from SSRI once PoS $6 or above). More than overweighted in GFI, as I also have a large position in ASA (GFI = 41% NAV of ASA). Not scaling back, learned to let the winners go. Unless better opportunities arise. Droopy was added late. My remaining 2 positions are NEM and PDG (merging speculation, but will sell this week). For NEM, if they take the droopy way, maybe they could buy the hedge book back by issuing new shares (70 million) and deliver gold in Aussie$. I calculate dilution at 20%. This would mean either a temporary drop to $24, or some weeks or months of sideways pricing around $30. Before a run to whatever the HUI will have performed in the meantime. I've heard of Bob Chapman writing that Greenspan has given till end of May to the banks to clean their derivatives mess. You may take Bob's writing with the amount of salt you want, but his comments on the Fed were always correct. This means, IMHO, that June will be a shakeout at the miners hedges and conditional credits when the PoG will be higher. And I think PoG will be higher before any CB intervention or bank bailout. Which would have a negative impact on PoG. How negative the impact is the $64k question: hold through the correction (and be in for the real leg up) or try to get out at the first rally top with no guarantee for the depth of the correction through. That through could be a mortgage-the-kids opportunity. As it could never happen. Had another look at the charts, with the scale set from 0 to 800. These last rallies really are small potatoes.