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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (71610)	5/26/2002 10:37:54 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99280

Inertia is on the semi-equip people side, people and investors still think they could be valued at more than 2 times peak sales. Very long term, as we approach the limits of Moore's law, the need to constantly reequip fabs will diminish. Similarly, unless a new method of growing single crystals emerges, there is a limit on how large a wafer can be made (I have seen 2 feet silicon boule, but these cannot be very long because the weight will break the "seed" holding the boule), and thus the increase in efficiencies due to increase in wafer size will also stop. Eventually, the semi-equip will be treated like other cap equipment company and will fetch max prices of .5 to 1 peak cycle sales. Zeev