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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (42746)	5/27/2002 7:01:55 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

International nuclear experts believe technicians in India and Pakistan are stepping up the production of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium as the threat of serious conflict over the disputed mountains of Kashmir intensifies, British newspaper Guardian reported. Military analysts in Islamabad and New Delhi have begun openly discussing scenarios in which the guerrilla war in Kashmir might flare into a nuclear confrontation. Daily Times reporting today.. According to the newspaper, Zia Mian, a Pakistani physicist at Princeton University, said the two countries were racing to expand their nuclear arsenals. “The Pakistani uranium enrichment facilities, as far as we know, are working three shifts around the clock,” he said. “The trouble is that both sides imagine that a nuclear bomb just makes a bigger bang,” said Brian Cloughley, a south Asia military analyst and retired Australian army officer. “They have got no concept of the sheer magnitude of the disaster of a nuclear exchange. Radioactive fallout in the Himalayas would mean the death of the subcontinent.” With 1.2m soldiers, the Indian army is the world’s third largest and more than twice the size of the Pakistani force. Officers in Islamabad admit privately that in a conventional war Pakistan’s army, although widely regarded as better trained, could hold out for barely three weeks, the report said. According to the report, after the two rivals held tit-for-tat nuclear tests in 1998, it appeared there was at last a balance between them. But it quickly became apparent that this was not the nuclear deterrence of the cold war. Unlike the host of “confidence-building” agreements, which tempered the hostility between the Soviet Union and the US, the only measure currently in place is an agreement not to attack each other’s nuclear installations. Few believe it would stick in the event of war. With limited real-time intelligence, the chance of unleashing a nuclear attack by mistake is considerable. While India has committed itself to a “no first-use” policy, Pakistan’s generals are prepared to use the nuclear option in a war, analysts here say. Pakistan’s Army believes it would be difficult to contain a conflict in Kashmir and stop it spiralling out of control. “The idea of keeping this as a limited conflict is very difficult. Where do you draw the line?” the report quoted Lt-Gen Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani officer and security analyst, as saying. “Because of the arithmetic Pakistan becomes very vulnerable and then you have to consider the nuclear option.” Pakistan has between 25 and 50 nuclear warheads, according to Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems. India is believed to have between 100 and 150. Perhaps the strongest weapon in Pakistan’s arsenal is the threat of a first strike. “Pakistan relies on first use. We have to have the option, otherwise there would be no deterrence,” the report quoted Khalid Ahmed, a commentator and former foreign ministry official, as saying. According to the newspaper, in Rawalpindi, the military leadership long ago drew up the three worst cases in which it might resort to its ultimate weapon. The most likely would be a massive Indian strike into the province of Sind, in the south, which would cut Pakistan in half. Second would be the loss of Lahore, Pakistan’s second largest city, which sits 30 minutes drive from the Indian border. The final risk is the collapse of its army in the face of overwhelming odds. Indian analysts suggest their generals are aware that forcing Pakistan into a desperate position could be the final trigger. “If the Indians made an incursion deep into Pakistan and didn’t show signs of stopping, the Pakistanis might threaten the use of nuclear weapons,” the report quoted Sumit Ganguly, a political scientist at the University of Texas as saying. “But everything about Indian military culture speaks of prudence.” Yet as both states push their armies closer towards their fourth war, care and prudence appear in short supply, the report said. Britain’s the Times newspaper also reported, quoting a leading Pakistani nuclear physicist, that Pakistani scientists have been working secretly round the clock for the past three years to accelerate production of weapons-grade uranium, This means Pakistan may have more nuclear warheads than previously believed, the paper suggested. Pervez Hoodbhoy, professor of nuclear physics at the Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, said there were clear indications that the nuclear warheads were already in place on missiles. “We are much closer to a nuclear confrontation with India than at any other time,” he warned. Hoodbhoy told the Times the scientists had been working in three shifts over the past three years. For the Times, his disclosure raised the possibility that Pakistan could assemble more nuclear warheads than the estimated 30 to 50 it is generally thought to have. Each warhead would have the same explosive power as the atomic bomb dropped over the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945. Daily Times..

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (42746)	5/27/2002 9:50:31 PM
From: tony	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

bayarea.com Since General mush has supported terrorists in the past, one should not expect for him to change much. For sept 11th change he got money & visit to white house, instead of stepping down as promised he put election sham to stay in power for 5 more years, how sad with only 10% electorate turnout. I never liked the idea of attacking Iraq, but now considering what a Terrorist state Pakistan, also reading history of Pakistan whenever any dictator takes power, it invades India, can harm India a democratic country. I am all for attacking Iraq getting rid of mass destruction weapons. I am afraid what will happen when this dictator from Pakistan gives this missiles & atom bombs to Palestine Terrorists or suicide bombers in the name of Islam, we can have nothing but nightmare. Infact, we all should request our senators & congress men/women to stop all aid to Pakistan till we can verify that all the Terrorist activity is stopped and also to make sure that these nuclear weapons are safe. I watched CBS evening news and it portrayed all those terrorists trained in Pakistan and displaying their weapons with Osma Bin Laden Picture. We should not trust this dictator Mush. Let me remind all of you all those Sep 11 terrorists were funded by terrorists based in Pakistan and imagine how a Terrorist State Pakistan has harmed us, by making us feel insecured. Iqbal, you are great guy. But facts for dictator Mush speak otherwise. We could not tolerate any terrorist activity as it ultimately come to haunt us in USA. I hope there is no war. I cannot imagine millions dying on both sides. I read also that it may kill the whole sub continent with side effects. Everybody needs to step up and not let this dictator from Pakistan walk away with murder and destruction of the sub-continent. My best regards to you Iqbal, hopefully there is no war.