Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (23072)	5/27/2002 9:06:39 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196792

Art, << For 2002, the forecast for handsets is about 81 million, with 170 million subscribers. >> Last time Qualcomm & CDG forecasted 50 million subs net adds in one year they actually achieved 30 million. That year they forecasted 90 million handsets and had sell in of less that (<70 million). Forecasts from UWCC and GSMA for subs and handsets that year exceeded forecast. Do you honestly think that CDMA will add 50 million net add subs this year or even come close? - Eric -

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (23072)	5/27/2002 10:10:08 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196792

Art, For 2002, the forecast for handsets is about 81 million, with 170 million subscribers. By 2005, the number of handsets increases to about 256 million, and subscribers more than double to 377 million. Rather than use those averages of the consulting firms' estimates, I'd look to determine the specific drivers of growth and I'd look to see if the estimates make common sense. Not having access to the specific drivers that the consultancies think will drive the growth, we can only look at the latter aspect. At the end of December and March, CDG estimated 111 million and 120 million subcribers, respectively. To achieve 170 million by the end of this year assume more than 50% annual growth, a clear reversal of the current trend. (That's why it's so important to determine the drivers -- to determine if the reversal is believable.) Moreover, meeting that goal would require 42% growth in only nine months. The average consultancy estimate also assumes subscription growth will grow at an average annual rate of 30% from 2002 through 2005. For that number to have any credibility, I'd need (again) to see the various drivers of adoption. My first question I'd want the issue of drivers to address: why are the consultancies predicting 50% growth this year but only 30% annual growth in the following three years? --Mike Buckley

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (23072)	5/27/2002 11:29:45 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 196792

Art B. -- sorry, but I noticed a typo you might want to fix up : (in third paragraph of main stuff) The technology solves many of the problems associated with multiband handsets, capable of handling the 800 mhz cellular band and the 1800 mhz PCS band, along with ... Should be 1900 MHz (for PCS band) (in U.S.). Jon.