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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (30935)	5/28/2002 1:52:22 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

Latest Palestinian polling data from Khalil Shikaki: Shikaki said in a telephone interview yesterday from his office at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah that what he told his interlocutors was not essentially different from what he was quoted in this column as saying in September 2001. At that time, too, the public debate in Israel focused on the struggle against terror and the question of a successor to Arafat. Shikaki said then that the only way to stop bombing attacks against Israelis was for Arafat to impose a cease-fire, but that he could not do so without a viable peace process. "If Sharon enters the process, the cease-fire will hold," he said. "If the political stalemate continues, however, Arafat will not make efforts to stop the violence." Shikaki carried out his most recent poll between May 15 and 18, as Operation Defensive Shield was drawing to a close. Of the 1,317 adult Palestinians interviewed in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, 67 percent said that they believe armed confrontations have helped achieve Palestinian national rights in ways that negotiations could not (as compared with 61 percent in December). Some 86 percent oppose the arrest of those who carry out bombing attacks inside Israel (76 percent in December). Support for bombings inside Israel dropped to 52 percent (58 percent in December) but support for armed attacks against IDF soldiers and settlers rose to 92 percent and 89 percent respectively. The most significant finding of the poll is that the demand for fundamental internal political reform has become an important issue for the Palestinians. Some 91 percent support reforms and 89 percent support a democratic system of government. Only 35 percent would elect Arafat as president compared to 36 percent last July and 46 percent in July 2000. However, the leading replacements for Arafat are not likely to be favored by Sharon: 19 percent said they support Fatah's Marwan Barghouti (only 11 percent, before his arrest by Israel, in December), while 13 percent favor Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. Another 10 percent each support Haidar Abdul Shafi of Gaza and peace negotiator Sa'eb Erekat. Abu Ala of the peace plan has the support of 2 percent but can take heart from the fact that his rival, and colleague from the Oslo days, Abu Mazen, has the support of only 1 percent. news.haaretz.co.il Situation looks as intractable as ever. Sharon has no intention of presenting a "political horizon" to Arafat -- presumably an even better deal than the one he turned down at Taba -- ever. Total waste of time and huge reward for terror. And let's remember, were there no bombings back in the days when there was a "political horizon" at Taba? No indeed, the bombs of the intifada were already going off. So everything is stuck until there is a new leader for the Palestinians who might, just might, work for a Palestine next to Israel instead of a Palestine instead of Israel. Until then, the war process continues.