Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (23096)	5/28/2002 2:02:15 PM
From: Michael Allard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196787

David: I do not believe there a 1:1 relationship with handset sales and subscribers. Anyone who upgrades handsets (for which I believe there is a tremendous pent up demand for) are not counted as an additional subscriber. I know of dozens of people waiting for new handsets to come out for upgrades.

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (23096)	5/28/2002 4:53:02 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196787

David, << If the subs number does in fact hit 170 million by year end, there will be a lot more than 81 million handsets sold this year. >> Well, I finally found the source of the 2002 CDMA 170 million sub forecast (and I gather you did as well) and I am relieved that the forecast is not Qualcomm day dreaming (but somebody else's). Slide 7 from Analysts Day shows 170 million as the average of forecasts from 3 research houses: * EMC (9/01) about 191 million * Strategy Analytics (1/02) about 165 million * Cahners (4/02) about 153 million EMC is far and away the highest forecast, and also the oldest. I'm not sure why Qualcomm would use a 9/01 EMC forecast since EMC updates their forecasts quarterly to their clients (Qualcomm is a client) ... and the December overall revision after a punk quarter was substantial, but without those EMC numbers they wouldn't have been able to show a CAGR of 30% for CDMA thru 2005 (... or am I being cynical from watching this drama for so many years? <g>). Last 27 months look like this: Year Cum YOY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Adds Subs Growth 2000 7,185 8,640 5,077 9,438 30,340 80,440 61% 2001 9,963 5,910 6,871 8,167 30,911 111,351 38% 2002 8,867 - - - - - - FWIW: Since my WAG is probably as worthless as anyone else's, if all goes well this year I am anticipating maximum 42 million net adds for a cumulative subscriber base of approximately 153 million (~38% growth rate - same as last year). I personally think that is aggressive, but doable. Last year (using Qualcomm's 74 million number from Strategy Analytics) replacement handsets were 58% of sell in, which seems high to me, BWDIK. To get to 80 million handsets this year, replacement sales would need to be 47.5% of sell in (assuming above). To get to 85 million handsets this year, replacement sales would need to be 50.5% of sell in (assuming above). 85 million handsets will be a stretch, IMO, but if we reach it we are likely to have some rather stuffed channels headed into C0103. Qualcomm slides here (9.2 MB) qualcomm.com - Eric -