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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (23109)	5/29/2002 9:11:02 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 196798

re: Strategy Analytics on Q1 2002 << 42 million sub adds sounds aggressive to me as well >> I'm looking for one heck of a Christmas to make up for last years coal in the stocking. <g> Some interesting numbers here ... Looks like Strategy Analytics is projecting 35 million CDMA handsets in US (v. QCOM 42 million). GSM sales in US appear to be pegged too high given the state of GSM rollouts in the US and TDMA to low. CDMA could be a tad low. it is certainly lower than what Qualcomm is projecting, but I find Qualcomm's combined replacement number of 65% (churn-in + upgrade) to be optimistically unrealistic. >> U.S. To Pass 50 Pct Mobile Penetration This Year - Study Total Telecom 29 May 2002 Global handset figures also released show Samsung in the ascendancy. The U.S. market will pass the 50% penetration mark according to research published Tuesday by Strategy Analytics. The consultancy said that penetration will reach 51% by the end of the year versus 46% at the end of 2001. This represents a growth of 13% to 145 million in 2002. The report confirms Verizon Wireless' lead over the market with 22% market share. In second and third place are Cingular with 16% and AT&T with 14%. It also finds that some 17% of U.S. users get service from smaller local carriers – a percentage that David Kerr, VP, Wireless Practice, said will decrease through consolidation. "There is a need for scale," he said. In keeping with speculation Kerr also predicted that there would be a 'mega-merger' amongst the GSM players, saying that the U.S. market can't support three full nationwide GSM networks. The total number of handset sales in the U.S. this year will reach 81 million, with replacements accounting for 50% of those sales. This is where the real battle lies said Kerr who noted that replacement sales have been quite strong in the CDMA sector as new Java-enabled models with color screens come onto the market. 43% of all sales will be CDMA handsets while GSM will represent 36% of sales. "TDMA sales are dropping dramatically," said Kerr. Strategy Analytics predicts that just 9% of handsets sold in the U.S. this year will be TDMA-based. Figures released by the company last week put global shipments of CDMA handsets at 16% in the first quarter of this year which Kerr said represented rapid growth. GSM is still dominant however with 65% of total handset shipments. Last week's research - "Global Handset Market: 1Q 2001 Handset Market Share" – predicted that the total global number of handsets shipped this year will be 425 million. The company reported that there were 91 million shipments from vendor to operator in the first quarter of the year. The data suggests that Samsung is the one to watch this year with a first quarter 2002 market share of 10.4% putting it in third place behind Nokia (35.4%) and Motorola (15.6%). Siemens is placed fourth with 9.1%. "A bruising battle is emerging between Siemens, Samsung and Motorola," said Kerr. "Samsung is the leader in CDMA and is actively and aggressively attacking the global GSM market." Kerr suggested that Samsung might buy one of the smaller European players such as Alcatel or Philips. Ultimately, "There will be greater separation between the top few handset manufacturers and the chasing pack," he asserted. Strategy Analytics found that Sony Ericsson had 6.4% of the global market in the first quarter. Kerr described the company as being at a crucial point in its development. "They have some excellent [high-end] products but nothing at volume which makes it difficult to grow market share. They will have to decide if they want to compete at the volume market or stay at the 5% level. There are conflicting signs as to where they want to be." Kerr tipped LG Infocomm as one to watch. "They will be rapidly moving up the ranks with regard to market share," he said. LG is building up its presence in the US CDMA market and has what Kerr termed, "an increasing GSM story." In figures released in April, Gartner Dataquest found that Nokia had a market share of 36.9% in the fourth quarter of 2001 and 35% for 2001 overall. Gartner said that Motorola had a full year market share of 14.8%. These figures put Samsung in fourth place behind Siemens, saying that the Korean manufacturer had a 7.95 market share for the fourth quarter. << - Eric -