To: TobagoJack who wrote (19359 ) 5/28/2002 8:46:54 PM From: marek_wojna Respond to of 74559 After reading this, I think is time for cancellation of some even better names. <<US CREDIT OUTLOOK - New supply to weigh on market 28-May-2002 23:09:00 By Oliver Ludwig NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - With little economic data expected Wednesday, U.S. bond markets are likely to turn their attention to hefty amounts of debt issuance this week from both the government and GE Capital, the biggest U.S. corporate issuer of debt. The Treasury's record $27 billion sale of two-year notes Wednesday has already capped gains in that maturity, while intermediate maturities could be hurt by GE Capital's expected sale of $6 billion in five- and 10-year notes sometime this week. "I think that's why the short end underperformed a little bit today," said Kim Rupert, an economist at Standard & Poor's MMS, referring to the planned Treasury sale. The long holiday weekend came and went without a terror incident, pulling last week's safety bid out of the U.S. Treasuries market and setting the stage for the stock market losses to translate into Treasuries market gains. Treasuries also got a slight lift from consumer confidence data showing that even if U.S. consumers are growing more sanguine about the present, they remain circumspect about the six-month outlook. The data reinforced the murky outlook and the caution expressed by Federal Reserve officials in the last several weeks, who have suggested the central bank will hold off until at least August before considering raising benchmark interest rates from four-decade lows of 1.75 percent. POLITICS VS ECONOMICS Some see a tug-of-war between decent economic data and a host of unrelated downside risks to the economy like the threat of a possible terror attack on the Statue of Liberty, which helped fuel last week's bond market gains and stock losses. "There is a tug-of-war in the Treasury market between economic fundamentals and corporate/political event risk," fixed income strategists at Deutsche Bank Securities wrote in their weekly outlook. But even if economic data, like jobless claims this week and a survey on U.S. manufacturing early next week, point to a brightening economic outlook, they are not likely to prompt a big Treasuries sell-off. "While the balance of short-term factors allow for a tactical push lower this week, it remains important to focus on the forest and not the trees," said Peter McTeague, a market strategist Greenwhich Capital. McTeague cited uneven growth, cautious Federal Reserve officials, struggling stocks and geopolitical tensions as the positive backdrop for bonds. Overall, Tuesday's economic reports -- including the fifth straight month of increasing U.S. consumer spending and a 7- percent surge in existing home sales in April -- showed consumers, who power two-thirds of U.S. economic data, should keep shouldering the economy through its recovery until businesses invest and hire again. That is exactly what Fed officials want to see before considering raising benchmark interest rates from four-decade lows of 1.75 percent. "'No Fed/Slow Fed' remains the strategic focus," said Greenwhich Capital's McTeague, who also recommends 'curve steepeners and positive carry trades.