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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3333)	5/29/2002 11:00:27 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95565

RTS, Your bearishness is right on target, IMO. As long as your time horizon is short term, there's little out there that can currently act as a catalyst for this sector. Individually, stocks may selloff to levels that worth buying in but as a group there's little to get excited about. One still needs to view the big picture - which is improving substantially from where it was a few months ago. I would take issue with your comments that demand is growing but not fast enough. It may not be fast enough for you or for most market "analysts" but demand is moving in the right direction. I'm not sure what your expectations are but it seems to me that so many people have expected a dramatic turn around. Well, as you are aware, that's not going to happen in the next 3 or 4 weeks. The big picture currently has the dollar falling against most currencies, gold soaring-compared to the past few years, oil+gas prices relatively high, concerns about the political turmoil in many sections of the world, and all this on top of the market hangover left from two of the greatest bull market tops ever seen (nasdaq down 66% from it's peak and the nikkei was down over 70%). Add terrorism, Enronism, Analystgate (or whatever they are calling the bullshit perpetrated by ML and all the other scum bags during the Internet stock boom/hype) and we get a lot of reasons people are negative on US stocks in general and especially tech associated stocks - where the semis fall. Until there's a reason to change our perspective, we need to acknowledge that the path of least resistance is down. Even with this information, one needs to keep an open mind about the future of this sector.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3333)	5/29/2002 11:40:04 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95565

RtS, >This just is not how the market is seeing things at all< I take note of the Market's sentiment but do not echo it. :) Gottfried

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3333)	5/29/2002 12:13:58 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95565

I still expect a short term bottom by the middle of next week if we follow recent trading action. At that point in time the market may very well come to the conclusion that all this recent selling is overdone. This all only happens in the absence of further negative catalysts. I hope to be going long next week at levels lower than we see today. Here is the latest from Briefing.com on the semiconductor stocks and related issues: 10:42AM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Index is once again on the defensive and trading towards its worst levels of the session. Currently trading at 1628, look for initial support at 1626 followed by an additional floor at 1611/1613. To the upside, watch for initial resistance at 1634 followed by subsequent overhead at 1642. 9:57AM Applied Micro cut to Sell from Hold at Needham (AMCC) 6.36 -0.17: 9:49AM Sector Watch : Semiconductor equipment is the major laggard this morning (NVLS mid-qtr update) and is responsible for much of the decline in the SOX (-2.5%). Leading the way to the downside are NVLS -2.5, KLAC -2.23, CYMI -2.18, CCMP -1.84... Also under pressure are Utilities (-4.4%), Storage (-1.9%), and Oil Services (-1.8%)... Homebuilders (+1.2%), Tobacco (+1%), Insurance (+0.95%), Airlines (+0.9%), and Pharmaceuticals (+0.7%) are among the groups demonstrating strength. 9:33AM Cisco Systems cut to Sell by Dresdner -- valuation (CSCO) 16.07 -0.31: --Update-- In pre-market note, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein downgrades to SELL from Hold. While co's 10-Q provided little new info, the accounting and disclosure issues firm has highlighted in the past remain intact. Firm continues to find the stock overvalued relative to its fundamentals. Dresdner's price target on the name is $13... (Worth mentioning that firm has been bearish on CSCO for some time, having rated the stock either Reduce, Sell or Hold for almost a yr). 9:03AM Plexus Corp cut to Underperform by Raymond James (PLXS) 26.15: Raymond James downgrades to UNDERPERFORM from Mkt Perform on what firm believes to be a less than compelling risk-to-reward reflected in the current valuation and lingering concerns over co's networking/datacom customer base (40% of revs). Firm reducing its FY02 est to $0.20 from $0.25 and FY03 to $0.60 from $0.70. 8:37AM Qualcomm: China Unicom push out negative for QCOM (QCOM) 31.41: Hearing from sources that SoundView Technology is commenting on QCOM this morning. According to SoundView, China Unicom is pushing out their build out of CDMA infrastructure. Firm believes this delay will negatively impact QCOM. 8:22AM Cisco Systems 10-K reviewed at Merrill, Solly (CSCO) 16.38: Merrill Lynch says that CSCO's 10-K reveals no major alarms regarding accounting practices, but that the co's allowance for doubtful accounts represents a yellow flag. Salomon Smith Barney notes that CSCO highlighted about $2 bln in commitments it may need to fund in the near term, with the most interesting being the $1.05 bln commitment in SOFTBANK Asia Infrastructure Fund, which is often cited as a potential bidder for Asia Global Crossing; also, firm continues to believe the co has excluded inventory write-down benefits from proforma results, and that this issue should not be a factor going forward as the inventory write-down is largely complete. 8:15AM Teradyne estimate cut at BofA (TER) 27.53: -- Update -- In contrast to JP Morgan's upgrade (7:34), Banc of America cuts TER's FY03 est to $0.99 from $1.37 to reflect a current cycle stall out in, and believes that mgmt will have to make further cuts to balance expenses; sees fair mkt value for shares at $25-$27. 7:34AM Teradyne upgraded at JP Morgan (TER) 27.53: JP Morgan upgrades to BUY from Long-Term Buy based on consistent mkt and technology leadership, new and growing addressable mkt segments, fundamental under-investment in test equipment, near-to-mid term financial performance potential, recent stock performance, and relative valuation to its back and front-end peer group. Price target is $36. 7:28AM JDS Uniphase cut to Buy at CSFB (JDSU) 3.99: CSFB downgrades to BUY from Strong Buy as recent data pts from Ciena's earnings call and the CSFB communications conference point to continued weak carrier spending. Whencompounded with liquidity concerns at carriers such as Q, WCOM, BRW, firm believes news flow at Supercomm is likely to be negative from the group. Firm reduces price target to $7 from $10. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+^VIX&d=t RtS