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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (3062)	5/29/2002 5:32:59 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 3902

Borb, let me quote the headline "The global market for powerful servers shrank 15 percent in the first quarter, and IBM showed the strongest share gain, research from Gartner showed Tuesday" I think this says it all. It'S about a very "elastic" component of business investment spending. Yes it puts a damper on the most expensive Intel Chips (and probably the upcoming ones by AMD). There's also a saturation lifecycle especially in this area. You don'T need new servers (esp. fileservers and application servers) every time. What would necessitate new investment here would be increased economies of scope, new product lines or call it more "breadth" of offerings. If that happens you immediately need new and more server power. Usually the spending for servers is a staggering pattern overlaid by Operating system introductions. This is not where the big $$$ for chip companies and fabs are. This is a gauge of high-geared biz investment spending. I'm not disappointed by this newsblip at all.. ZL is too expensive for me. IT'S PSR is around 5. Not for me. In the US I would probably buy stocks like FCS, CLTK, AGRa, ANAD and maybe tiny SRAM.OB. Valuation matters. In Japan you got New Japan Radio, Sanken Electric and especially Toshiba. All are selling for a PSR around 0.50-0.70. That's where I would buy now not into overvalued Canadian telecom chip design company... best rgrds CROSSY

To: borb who wrote (3062)	5/30/2002 5:51:06 AM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Borb & all, well the final verdict is in for the year on my japanese stocks and they are holding ground pretty well in the current consolidation... quote.yahoo.co.jp New Japan Radio (6911.J) - The company posted excellent results for the period ending March 2002 with an EPS of 16.08 Yen instead of breakeven. Guidance for 2003 was raised to 53.70 Yen from 32 Yen and for 2004 to 69 Yen per share. Consequently the company received another "STRONG BUY" recommendation. It now boasts 4x STRONG BUY and 1x BUY with an overall rating of 1.20 (Zacks, Yahoo, Multex) Shimdazu (7701.J) - Posted the expected loss per share of 30 Yen mostly due to special charges on pension liability and restructuring efforts but raised guidance for 2003 to 6 Yen (up from 3 Yen) and for 2004 to 13 Yen per share. Due to the increased exposure of biotech equipment to the analyst community, another brokerage issued a coverage with a "hold" rating additionally to the current "sell rating" by another one. This firm has a lot to gain from improved semi equipment orders and also has some defence & aerospace operations. Could become a stellar player in the current fiscal year. Diversified conglomerate Asahi Kasei (3407.J) posted 3.60 Yen per share in earnings (vs. expected 3 Yen) and raised guidance for the current fiscal year to 6.40 Yen. I've been looking into additional firms to buy a position in. So far I've been looking into big electronics related companies and their supply chain like Toshiba, Sanken Electric, Showa Denki, Nihon Inter (NIEC) If consumer confidence improves, then the consumer related segments should also be of interest. Still shying away from banks and brokerages.. Let's see where the Nikkei will be headed. It seems to be consolidating around 12000. Fundamentally Japan is one of the best places to be right now.... CROSSY