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To: yard_man who wrote (168837)5/29/2002 2:12:32 PM
From: JSD  Respond to of 436258
 
LOL - you just love pain (BAC and now PG) <vbg>



To: yard_man who wrote (168837)5/29/2002 2:18:26 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Respond to of 436258
 
Euro/Above $0.9330 -3: Inroads Vs Dlr 'No Trivial Move'

With the dollar suffering from concerns about the outlook for U.S. asset
prices, as well as the appetite of foreigners to finance the current account
deficit by investing in U.S. stocks and bonds, all of its major counterparts
have edged ahead at the greenback's expense.

But the euro has been by far the most headline-grabbing this week, with the
common currency's rally sparking long-dormant talk of the euro climbing to
parity with the dollar in the not-too-distant future.

The dollar's 6.9% decline against the euro since the start of April is no
trivial move in a major currency, "particularly one that has been identified
for a number of years now as a safe haven," said Woolfolk at the Bank of New
York.

He noted that a lasting break of the $0.9330 level could cause euro-skeptics
to "throw in the towel" and augur a move first above 95 cents by the summer and
then to parity before the end of the year.

The dollar is also weaker against its other major and peripheral counterparts
Wednesday. "In the breath of the move, the dollar has really fallen against
everything," said Brian Garvey, a senior currency strategist at State Street
Global Markets in Boston. "It's not a euro story, it's really a dollar story."


The euro does appear to be benefiting also from some independent support
however, including an improvement in growth prospects out of the single
currency area and net portfolio flows into the euro zone. Citibank noted on
Wednesday that after three consecutive months of long-term capital outflow,
the euro area enjoyed a modest EUR2.2 billion net capital inflow in March.

In this sense, more and more analysts believe that the euro could be in for
an enduring recovery, but at the same time many are also skeptical, given the
euro's history of failed rallies. "It takes two to tango, and the euro hasn't
been a cooperative foil to the dollar," said Larry Greenberg, international
economist at Reid Thunberg in Westport, Conn. "The euro still carries plenty of
baggage."

The single currency's upward track may also be limited by the weight of long
euro positions in the market, said Thomas Molloy, foreign exchange trader at
Bank Leumi in New York, who noted that the rally "seems to be running out of
steam."



-By Grainne McCarthy and John Parry, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2381;
grainne.mccarthy@dowjones.com