To: yard_man who wrote (168837 ) 5/29/2002 2:18:26 PM From: Haim R. Branisteanu Respond to of 436258 Euro/Above $0.9330 -3: Inroads Vs Dlr 'No Trivial Move' With the dollar suffering from concerns about the outlook for U.S. asset prices, as well as the appetite of foreigners to finance the current account deficit by investing in U.S. stocks and bonds, all of its major counterparts have edged ahead at the greenback's expense. But the euro has been by far the most headline-grabbing this week, with the common currency's rally sparking long-dormant talk of the euro climbing to parity with the dollar in the not-too-distant future. The dollar's 6.9% decline against the euro since the start of April is no trivial move in a major currency, "particularly one that has been identified for a number of years now as a safe haven," said Woolfolk at the Bank of New York. He noted that a lasting break of the $0.9330 level could cause euro-skeptics to "throw in the towel" and augur a move first above 95 cents by the summer and then to parity before the end of the year. The dollar is also weaker against its other major and peripheral counterparts Wednesday. "In the breath of the move, the dollar has really fallen against everything," said Brian Garvey, a senior currency strategist at State Street Global Markets in Boston. "It's not a euro story, it's really a dollar story." The euro does appear to be benefiting also from some independent support however, including an improvement in growth prospects out of the single currency area and net portfolio flows into the euro zone. Citibank noted on Wednesday that after three consecutive months of long-term capital outflow, the euro area enjoyed a modest EUR2.2 billion net capital inflow in March. In this sense, more and more analysts believe that the euro could be in for an enduring recovery, but at the same time many are also skeptical, given the euro's history of failed rallies. "It takes two to tango, and the euro hasn't been a cooperative foil to the dollar," said Larry Greenberg, international economist at Reid Thunberg in Westport, Conn. "The euro still carries plenty of baggage." The single currency's upward track may also be limited by the weight of long euro positions in the market, said Thomas Molloy, foreign exchange trader at Bank Leumi in New York, who noted that the rally "seems to be running out of steam." -By Grainne McCarthy and John Parry, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2381; grainne.mccarthy@dowjones.com