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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (81023)	5/30/2002 1:55:15 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Elmer, So why did you offer a prediction? "Next year, Intel will be the weakest on the desktop and entry level servers" I don't know if you remember form Economics 101 some concepts on foreign trade and comparative advantage, if you do, look at it from that perspective. Suppose AMD only matches Intel in some notebook categories, but falls way behind the desktops. Where is Intel weakest, most volnurable to competition? Notebooks. When AMD allocates production, notebooks should be the most attractive area. Whatever the actual performance in say Q1 2003, Intel is going to make a leap in notebooks, but stagnate on desktop, while AMD is going to make a leap on desktop and stagnate in notebooks. Weakness or strengths are not absolute. It is Intel vs. AMD. So just what is it about Hammer that instills such faith when there is no evidence? Jerry's promises? There is a plenty of evidence related to Hammer project. The actual manufacturing execution (vs. competition) is unknown, but there is evidence that the silicon exists, it runs existing software, some Hammer specific software exists (and is being written), Hammer runs it, it has chipsets, I have seen Hammer running, I have seen 2 running in a dual system, there will be a demo of 4 running in a quad system next month, SOI process exists, it is capable of producing CPUs that run. Hammer is not one single huge task, but a series of sub-tasks, many of which have been successfully completed. It's not just Jerry's words. What instills my faith in Hammer? I think it bites off the appropriate amount, about as much as it is possible to chew when going from one generation to another, and it bites off chunks in exactly the right areas. For example, extending the instruction set creates some havoc in the core, so the other changes to the core are somewhat limited. Not too many foreign concepts have been introduced. Outside of the core the changes have been very liberal - onchip memory controller, probable tweaks of L1 / L2, HT bus, built in HT switch. Joe