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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FaultLine who wrote (31123)	5/30/2002 1:15:32 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

<<Analyst George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace called the situation a "very hairy business that makes the Cuban missile crisis potentially look like child's play.">> Turning to Rumsfeld ABCnews.com May 30, 2002 President Bush is sending Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to India and Pakistan amid growing fears that tensions between the neighbors could suddenly spiral into all-out nuclear war. "Secretary Rumsfeld will be going [to the region]," Bush said as he met with his Cabinet in the White House. "We are making it very clear to both Pakistan and India that war will not serve their interest," he said. Bush's deployment order for Rumsfeld came after suspected Islamic militants stormed a base in Indian-controlled Kashmir, killing three policemen. Meanwhile, intelligence sources told ABCNEWS that India was preparing to put conventional warheads on missiles that could also carry nuclear warheads. If these were launched, Pakistan would not know which kind of warhead was headed its way — a purposely ambiguous signal that U.S. officials fear could lead to a miscalculation and spark a nuclear conflict. The president today urged Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to "live up to his word" and stop cross-border terrorism in Kashmir. Bush acknowledged Islamic militant Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda fighters may try to use the Kashmir conflict as an opportunity to regroup and operate in Pakistan, but said they would be unable to hide forever. He also told reporters Rumsfeld and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell were studying ways to "protect American lives" in the region if necessary. Pakistan Won't Rule Out First Strike In the mountainous region of Doda in Indian-administered Kashmir today, a gun battle broke out when militants stormed an Indian police base. After a 15-hour standoff, three guerrillas were killed inside the base, Indian police said. India and Pakistan have amassed a million men along the Line of Control separating Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir in recent days, sparking widespread international fears of an all-out war between the two nuclear-powered states. The two countries have been trading heavy fire along the Line of Control and an Indian police official told the Associated Press that at least 14 people, including 11 civilians, were killed in overnight artillery shelling and mortar fire from the Pakistani side. Meanwhile, Pakistan Television today reported that 14 civilians were killed by Indian shelling overnight. Pakistan's U.N. ambassador, Munir Akram, said Wednesday his country would not attack India unless it was attacked first, but ruling out first use of nuclear arms would give India a "license to kill" his people. "We are ready and if attacked, we shall respond and shall respond with our full might," Akram said. India has said it would not use nuclear weapons first. However, Pakistan has made no such promises. India's military is twice as large and more advanced than Pakistan's, and Pakistan has lost the three wars it has fought with India. Troop Movements U.S. analysts said they see in both India and Pakistan a steady preparation for a limited war along the Line of Control. The cross-border shelling has intensified, forcing people on both sides to spend their days in bunkers. But dozens of civilians have nevertheless been killed. "They've been firing and shelling from all sides," said one young woman. Musharraf today began withdrawing troops from the border with Afghanistan and warned they would be deployed along the Indian frontier if the Kashmir crisis is not defused. India has also been sending more troops to the Pakistan border. Indian officials say Pakistan is the "epicenter of international terrorism," and that Musharraf has already had enough time to crack down on the Muslim militants in his country who have caused so much chaos in theirs. The implication is that India may take matters into its own hands, launching attacks against the militants inside Pakistan. But visiting troops at the border on Wednesday, Musharraf warned any strike could escalate into all-out war. If the Indian army moves one inch across the border into Pakistan, he said, there will be a crisis. Millions of Lives at Stake In Washington, the State Department again urged restraint, also underscoring the danger. "The climate is very charged and a serious conflagration could ensue if events spiral out of control, " spokesman Richard Boucher said. A U.S. intelligence report estimated a full-scale nuclear exchange between the two countries would kill up to 12 million people. U.S. officials have drawn up contingency plans for the evacuation of U.S. government employees in both India and Pakistan, in case events take a turn for the worse. Scholars of the region say what they are seeing and hearing now is no longer just big talk. "You have a very disturbing gung-ho sense in the militaries of these two countries. You have a trivialization of what nuclear war means," said Ahmed Rashid of the Far Eastern Economic Review. "There's no sane voice in either country advocating that this is stupidity." Analyst George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace called the situation a "very hairy business that makes the Cuban missile crisis potentially look like child's play." ________________________ ABCNEWS' John McWethy at the Pentagon and Jim Scuitto in Islamabad, Pakistan, contributed to this report. abcnews.go.com