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Politics : War -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChinuSFO who wrote (14958)	5/31/2002 4:35:40 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Respond to of 23908

OOoops... Fools that we're!! Roy, we've forgotten to factor in CHINA into the Kashmir equation: Risks and opportunities for China Nayan Chanda IHT Friday, May 31, 2002 Still Pakistan's ally SINGAPORE In the chorus of world leaders urging Pakistan to reign in the militants in Kashmir and halt missile tests, Beijing's voice has been conspicuously absent. In January, China hailed Pakistan for breaking with its policy of supporting terrorism in Kashmir. After the recent attack by terrorists there that killed 34 people, mostly women and children, and India's threat of war against Pakistan, China called for "utmost restraint" by both sides. Surveying the new geopolitical landscape, China may well conclude that in the mix of risks and opportunities that a crisis normally brings, the former this time far outweigh the latter. Beijing has to balance five dangers against three opportunities. On the positive side, Sept 11. gave China the opportunity to bury recrimination with Washington over the spy plane saga, with public support for President George W. Bush's war on terror. Second, the new focus on fighting terrorism amounted to giving China a free pass in its harsh action against alleged separatists in Xinjiang. Beijing promptly brought out a white paper detailing so-called terrorist acts by the East Turkistan movement. A spate of arrests and executions in Xinjiang since then has occurred without much Western protest. Third, the collapse of the Taliban and Pakistan's public pledge that it will not support terrorism in Kashmir have enabled China to distance itself from a policy that runs counter to Beijing's interests in Xinjiang. It can now say that Pakistan, too, rejects terrorism. One of the most important reasons for China to stick with its long-standing ally Pakistan is a sharply deteriorating security environment. One of the five dangers, as Beijing sees things, is the sudden reinforcement of America's position in China's backyard. The newly established U.S. bases in Pakistan and in Central Asia rouse Beijing's deep-seated fear of encirclement. And they involve Central Asian countries which China sees as vital for its strategic as well as energy security. The U.S. presence in the region threatens to undercut China's attempt to strengthen its position in Central Asia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Second, the war on terror has enabled Japan, for the first time since the end of World War II, to send naval vessels to the Indian Ocean. Tokyo calls it a noncombat mission, but China sees the deployment as a dangerous precedent. And China watches with concern the return of U.S. forces to the Philippines. Third, China is worried by the increasing military and strategic ties between India and the United States. Beijing sees a fourth danger in the rise of America's high-tech warfare capability as demonstrated in Afghanistan. A Chinese military analyst has remarked that the United States may be emboldened by the success of its precision-guided weapons and high-tech warfare to "more often and more easily carry out policies of armed intervention in international affairs." Fifth, China fears that the new U.S. doctrine of preemptive deterrence may allow it to "engage in military interference on any pretext." The military superiority shown by America may be pushed to an unchallengeable height by the record spending in the new $379 billion defense budget. China helped to create the possibility of a nuclear showdown in South Asia by its financial and technical aid to Pakistan over many years. It now fears such a conflict. But broader concerns require it quietly to side with Pakistan, while publicly calling for restraint. The writer, a former editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review, is director of publications at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. He contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune. iht.com