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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JEB who wrote (42840)	6/2/2002 7:16:02 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

<I think it wasn't so long ago everyone was complaining about the dollar being too strong. > People are too concerned about dollar losing strength against Euro but honestly speaking Euro land has benefited from weaker Euro and higher exports for the last 2 to 3 years. The debut of Euro dollar cross rate was around 1.17, it made a low of 0.81, nearly 32% drop. I think what is happening is that some may recall there is escape of capital from US and dollar is weakening, but Euro land economic recovery is helping Euro a bit and regain its lost ground. Germans love their Mark and they had a historical fixation with strong Mark. Germans would not accept a 32% depreciation of Mark, but 32% depreciation of Euro was different and accepted under Euro land political unity. And I agree with your post on Euro. Euro land has benefited, now US exports must have kick start and 10-15% appreciation of Euro against the Dollar, would help exports of USA. In a low inflationary environment, a weaker dollar will not lead to higher inflation. Although this will be a major issue in next two or three months, if dollar- euro parity is achieved which I think is the target. <the XAU could trace back to 80 area and consolidate before next move.> You have predicted this movement of this index very correctly, and with India being largest importer of gold, as a metal of last resort, the chances of gold hitting back to 80 will depend on the regional stability. If uncertainty continues onto September, we might see Gold hovering at higher levels. But if there is a peace measurement, then Gold will certainly test 80. <the potential for an invasion is possible since this is the best window of opportunity for that to happen (monsoon season started early this year, 2-3 week window maximum).> I don’t think invasion will happen in next two or three weeks since this war is definitely going to be fought on basis of a limited war, weather will play an important role. At the moment, until 30th of June, according to Daily Telegraph, the weather patterns usually take the winds from north to south and hence if the Indian strategist that June weather is not the ideal time for invasion because the winds travelling from North to South are not very helpful for them if in case they desire to defeat Pakistan in five days is not achieved and the wall prolongs and Pakistan may go for a option of using its nuclear deterrence. So I think all these calculations do work in the minds of Military strategists, so I don’t think that the window of opportunity that is open now will be availed, rather India will see movements on the ground by Musharraf government, if there is crackdown and infiltration stops, we might see delay until September. And based on progress on last few months, either peace or ultimate showdown. I hope for the best, that infiltration will stop, and these two adversaries will sit down and look at the real problems affecting our nations. Of course I agree that militancy and extremism in our country is the biggest issue. If that is settled it will take care of a lot of other uncertainties. On NDX , I agree with your analysis.