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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan P who wrote (663)	6/5/2002 11:03:16 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Dan, I'm a little late in posting the GMI bit this week but I'm glad I waited until today. Gold took a bit of tumble; though it has recovered a little this evening. It appears that we may have experienced the start of the correction you have been looking for. The increased bullishness on the Street was certainly cause for expecting a correction. Rukeyser's main guest and Kudlow and Craimer's guests this past Friday were bullish on gold and there were a couple of articles/columns in Barron's with bullish comments. There wese also a lot of bearish comments concerning the dollar. It may also be significant that 325 was the price that Waninski claims gold had to reach to stop the deflation. However, the lease rates fell (one year rate less than 0.85%) again today, suggesting to me that there is an increasing surplus of gold available for leasing. Perhaps this induced a few extra takers today but it will take more than a day of declining gold prices to convince me that the carry trade has been revived. All recent drops in the POG lasted only a day or so. Perhaps we could see it come back as early as tomorrow. We have had several drops in the POG recently that last only a day or two. The GMI/POG ratio: On 05/30, the Barron's GMI was 487.70 down significantly from the previous week's high of 523.70. With the POG up significantly at 326.60 (05/31), the ratio was down significantly at 1.49. These drops in the GMI and the ratio may have signalled that a correction was due. The ratio a year previously was 1.19. Cheers, Larry