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To: E. Charters who wrote (86176)5/31/2002 1:07:47 PM
From: E. Charters  Respond to of 116915
 
In that series you get a 46.15 average gain in percent 4/3 of the time which averages to 61.52 per cent average gain.
If you went day high to day low it might be more realistic.

But do gains outweigh losses? Take the series 1,2,3,4,3,2,1
You invest one dollar each day to sell the following day. You get 2.00, 1.50 and 1.25 return to hold 1.75 against presumably the same dollar. On the way down, selling and taking an even chance with the dollar again, you lose, 25 cents, 33 cents, and 50 cents, to net a gain of 1.67 or 67%.

Message is sell fast and reinvest less. Sell half on a double? Always I would say. Sell half on any significant rise is safe. Sell against any rise. You must get out on the average at about your entry point. This presumes a bottom feeding strategy but does not presume you have to know where the high will be. Only that you don't fool too much below your entry point. Trouble is VSE and other tinny securities tank much too fast for the entry point stop to be of much use. Those pink sheet markets are a trapdoor to hell.

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