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To: quidditch who wrote (10200)	6/3/2002 4:52:27 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 10934

unless the "foreigners" have sufficient confidence in their own markets i think it just needs to be a relative shift. if foreign markets are a lot cheaper, and the US cos are not a lot "better" (more honest, etc.), then, coupled with a decline in the dollar, foreigners will be incented to shift allocations overseas. since their USD holdings are now at an all time high, it won't take much to shift the balance imo. the equal of what has been predicted lo these many years (Roche, BBiggs and others)--not to say it won't now, though. well, keep in mind that bears were predicting the fall of the Nasdaq and Inut stocks starting in 1995. eventually these stocks collapsed--just not on the time schedule that would have been most convenient for the bears. likewise, people have been predicting the dollar's fall for a long time. but just because it is logical that it should decline doesn't mean the market will comply on dollar bears' schedule. the dollar should have crashed two years ago, just like the Naz should have crashed for good in 98. but the market tricked shorts both times. and after the shorts were creamed, there was no "last line of defense" to prop up the bubble (in the Naz or the dollar). imho re: gold hedgers, check this out... tocquevillefunds.com