Jay,
Ah, a walk down memory lane for you and the regular thread participants, but for me a breath of fresh air. I had never seen those earlier posts of yours, and I found them quite amusing and fascinating. I'm glad to see that your "predictions" are more often right than wrong, and more often respected than ridiculed. I take particular note of the fact that the few perma-bulls that chose to confront your opinions publicly no longer do so. And one bull hasn't even posted anywhere on SI since last year. That says something, in my opinion. Great work. I think I'll even peoplemark you, which is an honor I don't easily bestow... <g>
Where was I? Oh, yes... I was offering up simple observations. Well, I have another one for people to digest.
Near my home, in the past year, a brand new, high end shopping mall has opened its doors. This mall has all or most all of the fancy names in shopping, certainly all of the brand names that American children look for in clothing. The mall is or has been fairly crowded since it opened, and sales have probably at least met expectations. While the mall attracts people of all wealth levels, it is a high end mall, and therefore caters mostly to upper-middle income to upper income folks.
This weekend, while shopping in Barnes & Noble for a book (more on that later), I noticed something peculiar for this mall. Barnes & Noble had adopted a "No Checks" policy.
I met my wife in a Hallmark Store located on the lower level, and lo and behold, another "No Checks" sign, but more verbose... "Due to the inordinate amount of bad checks received in the past few months, we are no longer able to accept personal checks from our valued customers!" (paraphrased, but that's the gist of it)...
What gives? This is a high end mall. The customers here are not riffraff from the bad parts of town. The people here have money, or at least give the illusion of having money. Bad checks? In my neighborhood? From my neighbors?
Perhaps all of these job losses are taking a toll after all. Perhaps the elimination of overtime is affecting folks' abilities to make those discretionary purchases that were so easy during the bubble years. Perhaps accepting a job that pays less that their previous job is having an impact on their ability to spend wisely...
As I shopped, I noticed a dearth of teenagers in the mall. Perhaps not so unusual for a Friday afternoon, as school may still be in session. However, that didn't seem to be the case earlier this year when teens accounted for a large percentage of the shoppers, even on the weekdays. Perhaps since the school year is coming to an end, this is not a favorable time period for teens to be shopping. I don't know. I was never a teenager myself, having gone from young boy to grown man overnight.
As I watched the other adults shopping, I noticed far more browsers (or Looky-Lou's) than I saw customers actually making a purchase. As usual, the bargains and discounted merchandise were drawing the most attention. I thought this to be rather strange for a high end mall, but what do I know...
My conclusions: Retail sales seems to be slowing down, at least in my little microcosm of the world. I'd avoid the higher priced retailers in favor of the discounters (Wal-Mart, CostCo) for now. By the way, I was in CostCo this afternoon, and it was a madhouse. The cashiering lines were simple awful, and the wait time seemed interminable.
Disclosure: I own nothing in the retail sector other than Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST), and I have no short positions...
Kerry
PS - Oh, yes... I promised more on the book I purchased...
There is a new book out titled "How America Made a Fortune and Lost Its Shirt" by Steve Gelsi and Thom Calandra. If the authors' names sound familiar to you, it's because they are both well-known and well-respected reporters for CBS MarketWatch. I had the good fortune to be interviewed by them for inclusion in the book, and my words of wisdom are on pages 111-113. There are other investors whose names are also included, though aside from the mention of Tokyo Joe, I don't know that any of them are specifically from SI. So, please rush out and buy your copy so that my words of wisdom can gather dust on your bookshelf for all eternity. <g> And remember that my words will forever be enshrined within the hallowed halls of the Library of Congress... <vbg> Disclosure: I get no money from the sale of the book, but if I can generate enough sales for the authors, I might have a decent chance of being included in any follow-up books... <sleazy smile>
PPS - The owners of that brand new, high end mall that cost millions of dollars to construct? Well, they just sold out the whole thing; lock, stock and barrel... Why would they do that if the money was so good doing what they doing, and if it exceeded their expectations? (Rhetorical question, as no one but them really knows for sure...) |
