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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73606)	6/1/2002 10:07:42 AM
From: Chispas	Respond to of 99280

George, from that article...(bless you for posting it...) _____________________________________________________________ The Day is Coming . . . The financial world is snugly confident that their computer models will shelter them from these storms. However, there will come a day without warning when the financial world will not behave as predicted. It will be a day when prices either plunge or leap off the charts in a way never seen before. It will be an abnormality, an outlier, on the tail end of the curve – a random event that random distribution can’t explain. A standard deviation that was predicted but unexpected, small, simple, and considered insignificant when it began, a discontinuous price change on the remote end of the curve that erupts into a crisis. On that one day, and that one day only, the professors will discover an indelible truth. Math cannot make certain what is inherently uncertain. As the crisis unfolds and the turbulence in the markets builds, and when the precision of the models is needed most, it will be at this moment they find their models have failed them. They were designed to protect the user from losses under normal conditions. They do not work when markets prove to be less random or independent. _____________________________________________________________

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73606)	6/1/2002 7:39:51 PM
From: Chispas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

George, "they" still read you over on Kitco... _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Date: Sat Jun 01 2002 19:17 Winston (from George Cole on Silicon Investor) ID#103450: "Zeev Head -- probably the best short-term market forecaster on SI -- now EXTREMELY BEARISH on the NAZ for the next few weeks. Looking for a move to near 1400 before the end of June. Such a plunge would inevitably push the dollar considerably lower IMHO."