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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan G who wrote (18671)	6/1/2002 9:38:33 PM
From: Susan G	Respond to of 26752

BUSTED ENDING By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) The day started out great and finished very ugly, a very disappointing end to a promising day. We had solid gains this morning when the market gapped open to the upside, pulled back to support, and then took off in a nice rally that extended itself into late morning. Along about the 11 o’clock hour, the market went into a sideways consolidation, which looked promising as well. However, after the lunch hour when no rally materialized and the NDX failed to get into new intraday high territory a sell-off ensued. Nasdaq had negatively diverged even though the Dow and S&P 500 did go to new intraday highs and it certainly appeared as if the Nasdaq actually dragged the market down today. The tech sector continues to get pounded with selling into every rally and obviously that’s not done yet. The bottom line is that the NDX ran up to resistance on the hourly charts at around 1248 and hit a brick wall right there at the declining tops line and the declining 40-day moving averages on the hourly chart. Similar action on the S&P 500, and at that point the market headed south and made a vain last-hour rally attempt that didn’t last long and as a result the indices closed at the lows for the day going away. Quite a disappointing performance. The Dow was only up 12 today and that was 120 points off the high. The S&P 500 after being up 14-15 points in the morning ended up 2 1/2. And the Nasdaq Composite, which was up to 1651 saw a reversal day to the negative side, closing down 16 at 1616. The Nasdaq 100 reversed from 1246 to 1208, closing down over 19 points. The SOX Index, which was up to 488, closed at 476, down 4. Despite the fact that we had the big sell-off, the technicals on New York were excellent for a day where we had very little gains. Advance-declines were 19-12 positive on New York, with up/down volume 7-4 positive. But Nasdaq was a different story. Advance-declines still managed to stay in the positive column, 17-15 positive, because a lot of stocks did not completely reverse into negative territory (even though they gave up most of their gains). But the up/down volume was abysmal, with less than 400 million up and 1.15 billion down, a total of about 1.5 billion traded on Nasdaq and about 1.25 billion on New York. The losers on my personal board today were led by Microsoft, which is obviously a major component of the indexes. It got smacked from 53 1/2 to under 51 and lead the market down, especially in the last two hours. eBay down 1 ½ and Siebel down 1.20 were the only other three plus-point losers. There were a very few stocks that managed to stay ahead for the day: Emulex up 61 cents, Brocade 54 cents, Qualcomm 46 cents and Intel 20 cents. But for the most part today was a terrible way to end the week. The Nasdaq as a result of today’s afternoon action still remains mired in a 2 1/2-week downtrend, with declining tops and bottoms. Until we get back over 1248-50 for starters that index & probably the rest of the market is still potentially going down to test the lows, and unfortunately that’s what’s likely to happen, if we take out 1190-1200 support on the NDX. Monday and Tuesday should be fairly critical short term for the market and we’ll see what direction it takes us. Even though the indices are still holding their recent lows they may very well be doing some further retesting before the early part of next week is over. Have a great weekend & good trading! Harry