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To: TobagoJack who wrote (19410)	6/2/2002 5:33:36 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, In or about 1946, there was a great tsunami that originated somewhere in Alaska and before its energy subsided, many of the Pacific islands were devastated, particularly those of French Polynesia which is many thousands of ocean miles away from the origination point of the tsunami. By way of example, the Marquesas Islands had no idea of the destruction that awaited their little paradise when an earthquake struck half a globe away. Is it correct to compare the devastating effects of energy as it travels through water, to any possible effects from a localized economic problem as it travels throughout the financial markets and affects nations half a globe away? I think the comparison is not only valid, it is mandatory to presume that it may happen. Here in the USA, many of us think of ourselves as being immune to the fiscal problems of other nations. And perversely, we think that any problems here will have lasting effects on other nations worldwide, in particular so called third world nations. And indeed, there is some element of truth in the latter part of that viewpoint. The USA is indeed the world's largest consumer. If we stop consuming, some $2 per day factory worker in Bangladesh loses his/her job, albeit a meager job at best. When we don't go to Starbucks for coffee, Juan Valdez loses another field worker in South America. If we lose our taste for bananas, an entire banana republic suffers economically. And if we lose our taste for jewelry, African nations suffer the consequences. But is the reverse also true? Would we suffer economically should financial disaster hit other nations? In the USA, we barely noticed the Asian currency crisis a few years ago. When Europe made its conversion from domestic currencies to the Euro, and the Euro plunged on international markets, the dollar actually appreciated and the average American likely wasn't even aware of the problem. Over the past few years there have been many currency problems and rampant inflation south of our borders, from Mexico, throughout Central America and in almost all of South America. I say almost all, because I believe that Tierra Del Fuego was largely ignored by the rest of the world. Throughout all of these problems, the USA was by and large unaffected, at least as viewed by the eyes of the common man. However, circumstances have rapidly changed over the past few years. We in the USA are more dependant on foreign financial interests than we have ever been in all history. Our energy needs, currently satisfied by foreign trading partners, are now higher than at any point in recorded history. Our largest domestic companies are no longer strictly domestic. The Ciscos and Microsofts need sales in Asia and Europe and Australia and South America simply to tread water in their financial reporting. Our cars are made in America by a Japanese company. Our computers are run by chips manufactured in Taiwan. Many of our edible products come from a country in Europe or Asia. Our financial markets are largely supported by foreign capital. My point is that the economy of the USA is inextricably intertwined with the economies of the other nations that share this planet with us. When one economy suffers, many will suffer. When one economy fails, many will fail. So yes, there is a coming financial tsunami. Its effects on the economies of the world will be devastating. The USA alone will not have sufficient buying power to "save" everyone else. The standard of living throughout the world will change dramatically. Currently we live on a planet that is economically bifurcated between the haves and the have-nots. This situation, while accepted as normal for the past 2000 or so years cannot continue forever. As you note, the economic tsunami is coming, and when it arrives, it will likely change the face of the worlds' economies as we know them today. Which nations will flourish and which will perish? Which nations have the internal natural resources to survive? Which nations have the will to survive, perhaps with a lower standard of living than they now enjoy? Stay tuned, because as you note, the tsunami is coming... KJC