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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheStockFairy who wrote (5544)	6/2/2002 6:00:43 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 46821

Did you mention the next killer app? Everyone thinks that the next killer app will boost demand and fuel an economic resurgence in the telecommunications food chain. I happen to disagree with those who would suggest that the next killer app must, necessarly, increase demand. For big ticket items, at least. Although, it will increase demand for alternative goods and services on a lower stratum, or unit scale. For, the next killer app will be plain old voice, only this time it will be voice that leverages the Internet Protocol, or VoIP. Notably, it will be deployed by two or three of the largest IXCs, and a number of alternative facilities-based access providers to residences and enterprises, alike. That's right. It came to me yesterday during an online discussion. I knew it all along, but just never chose to confront it or to verbalize it. But it's there, plain as black and white. This killer app will reduce demand for the big-ticket telco boxes, not increase it. What will be "killed" is the still-depreciating end-office switch model. I now use VoIP every day. Aside from the fact that I liked it at first for reasons I've already listed in this forum, it's now become a transparent matter to me unless a discussion like this one comes up. I see how soon we will be enabling office and neighborhood WiFi nets with wireless VoIP. Then multi-hops and meshes. Fellow workers and clients who sometimes telecommute are now routinely using VoIP over the enterprise VPN, using the same telephone numbers that they do at the office. If they happen to go to Houston or to Hong Kong on business, their calls that are directed to the New York numbers follow them without invoking any special instructions, and at no extra cost at all. Hey, you can't beat that. Broadband cable and dsl will become commonplace in the majority of middle- and high- income homes before long. And eventually, lower income, as well. And that is all that is required in the way of loop media to support VoIP. But, to tell you the truth, I consider those as minimal requirements for entry. Fiber to the home supporting IP over Ethernet would be an infinitely better choice, since the success of a multi-service broadband channel platform requires ample headroom, and nothing will provide the kind of headroom that fiber can. Where it's not economically feasible or topographically possible, other forms of broadband, including emerging forms of wireless, will do nicely. And they will all support VoIP. The ILECs wouldn't let the IXCs in over their copper loops at layer 1 under reasonable wholesale pricing terms (so the IXCs say). Therefore, the IXCs have elected to come into the home at Layers 2 and 3. It's a lot cheaper that way, too. And think of the access charges they will escape! Some forty cents plus out of every long distance dollar usually goes to the ILEC, right? Watch how the LECs piss and moan now! Let's see. What will they call VoIP? Is it a telecommunications service, or is it an Internet access service? Wait, it's a .... So, the next killer app may increase demand, but the demand will not be for switched circuit gear. It will be for stuff you can plug into your computer, or wear on your belt, or things that you can carry in your pocket or purse. And yes, it will require attaching special appliques in the home in order to allow you to leverage the existing inside wiring. And one may even have to install a new Cat x cable or two at some point if the existing cabling is inferior. So what. And for the enterprise who chooses to not even use an IXC, there is always one of these (probably a growing number of these, come to think of it) to offer IP Centrex services: telverse.com VoIP. The next killer app. It will reduce demand for big ticket gear. Elmat, you listening? smile FAC