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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: paul_philp who wrote (51612)6/3/2002 2:01:59 PM
From: gdichaz  Respond to of 54805
 
Paul: Again thanks.

There is very clearly a difference between those who sell without government hurdles and those who are hampered by the bureaucrats.

The enterprise, as you suggest, is usually open to people who are selling their "products" or "services" without government in the way.

That is clearly a major advantage in gorilla gaming.

(Although even in that, the government - even 50 states - can intervene in the Microsoft case re: desktop/enterprise)

Sadly, that is not possible in telecom where there is an idea that the government in some sense represents the "people", so the government can put often absurd - hard to connect the dots - conditions which hamper free market sales of products and services.

Qualcomm is forced to operate in an environment less free than that of someone selling shoes.

And as Eric L has pointed out many times to his credit, CDMA is beholden to the GPP and the GPP2 hybrids of government/industry/??/ which approve "standards" which a seller of shoes does not have to bother with.

So, should we limit our investments to shoe sellers?

Ah, that is the question.

For me, the answer is no.

Viva la Qualcomm.

(Unobjective comment)

Chuckle.

Best.

Cha2



To: paul_philp who wrote (51612)6/6/2002 2:48:15 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 54805
 
Newfangled Treo is the great communicator

By Edward C. Baig
USA TODAY
Wed Jun 5, 6:13 AM ET

Are you a sucker for all things new and improved? Do you fall for it when an advertiser assures you that the new and improved Brand X laundry detergent is going to wipe out those impossible stains? Or believe that the new and drastically improved New Jersey Nets have a prayer of toppling the NBA champion L.A. Lakers? (Let the record show that, with blind faith . . . um, foolishness . . . I do.)

In tech, new and improved might mean that version 1.0 of some gadget or program was so dreadful that, given another chance, the hapless designers couldn't help but make it better. Or that the maker is piling on features nobody wants.

And yet, all cynicism aside, sometimes new and improved is just that.

Consider the Handspring Treo communicator. The first of these smartly designed wallet-sized gizmos, models 180 and 180g, arrived earlier this year to mostly glowing notices (including here). The Treo cleverly combined a cellphone with a Web browser, short-message text device and Palm-based personal digital assistant.

The new and improved Treo 270 ($499, plus cell fees; you'll need a provider that uses the GSM standard, such as VoiceStream) tops its predecessors on at least two fronts, though there's still room to advance. For starters, the steel-gray 270 boasts a backlit keyboard and lovely color display, though the screen washes out in sunlight.

What's more, Treos now offer the kind of ''push'' e-mail service popularized by Research In Motion (RIM) BlackBerrys. The optional offering works with any Treo that has a built-in phone. (Not all do; Handspring just introduced the organizer-only Treo 90 for $299.)

The less-than-an-inch-thick 270 is identical in size to the earlier Treos and, thanks to a denser battery, just a tad heavier (5.4 ounces). With that rechargeable lithium ion battery, Handspring says you'll get up to three hours of talk time and 150 hours of standby time -- both superior to the 180 -- despite the power-draining color display.

Treo can run about two weeks when the wireless mode is shut off. An unscientific test -- pulling down a haul of e-mails -- seemed to drain the battery fairly quickly, however. Hidden under the protective lid, you'll find the same Lilliputian Qwerty keyboard as on the Treo 180.

Having recently reviewed two other wireless handhelds -- the Nokia (news - web sites) 9290 and BlackBerry 5810 -- reinforces my belief that the Treo 270 is best of breed, at least from the phone perspective. The versatile Nokia has a bigger keyboard but is weightier and taller, and it makes you flip the thing unnaturally on its back to talk; the BlackBerry makes you wear an earphone.

Opening the lid is the easiest way to answer a call on a Treo; closing the lid terminates it (if the lid is already open, you tap ''answer'' with your finger or the stylus). Even when closed, the lid's clear window lets you peek at the number and name of an incoming caller. Treo feels perfectly comfortable held up to the ear. (You can also connect an earpiece.)

Making a call is a breeze. You press your finger or stylus against stored speed-dial buttons corresponding to the person you want to get hold of, use your finger on a large virtual dial pad, or scroll through your address book via a ''rocker'' dial on the side of the Treo. Probably the neatest way to reach out and touch someone is to begin typing the first initial and last name; Treo pores through your address book to find him or her within a couple of taps. Press the space bar to dial.

The optional Treo Mail service comes in two flavors: a $100-a-year version to use with a Microsoft Outlook/Exchange corporate e-mail account (for reaching behind a firewall), and a $50 Net version for use with accounts through the likes of EarthLink, MSN and Yahoo. (It's not compatible with AOL, AT&T WorldNet and Hotmail, among others.)

Treo can automatically check for messages as frequently as every half-hour, or you can dial in to check more often. You can set up filters to block unwanted mail.

I tried the corporate version, with which you must keep your office computer turned on and connected to the network so that mail is redirected. Unfortunately, I got it to work only after grappling with network issues on the Treo. My unit was outfitted with a tiny phone card called a ''SIM'' (subscriber identify module) from Cingular, but I was doing my testing in VoiceStream territory. Initially, even with tech support, I couldn't connect to the data network at all.

Even after I finally connected, service was spotty. Dialing out via the ''Blazer'' browser (an oxymoron if ever there was one) as well as dialing for e-mail (which you have to do every time) was painfully slow. In fairness, Handspring did warn me that using a Cingular card in a VoiceStream area would slow things down.

Speed and connectivity issues will presumably be addressed when Treo exploits general packet radio service, a faster, more convenient cellular data network. Probably by summer's end, Handspring will let current users download a free software patch, and of course, you'll have to sign up for GPRS with your network provider. You will likely be billed by usage rather than minutes.

While I'm in quibbling mode, I found the absence of a Palm home button a minor nuisance. Instead, you must press two keys to get to the screen where the programs, preferences and other icons reside.

Then again, there's always room for improvement.



To: paul_philp who wrote (51612)6/8/2002 1:08:38 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 54805
 
re: 'infrastructure' and 'enterprise' markets

Paul,

<< Very quickly the difference that I see between 'infrastructure' and 'enterprise' markets is that the former is a 'build it and they will come' market. The carrier's must build out a complete infrastructure before they start marketing a product to the consumer. >>

Thanks for taking the time to explain your viewpoint on this.

I now understand what you are saying, but I an still having difficulty with what you characterize as an 'infrastructure' market, being distinct from an 'enterprise' market, although I have no problem distinguishing between 'wireless and telecom' as separate and distinct markets from the 'enterprise'.

Certainly these markets have differentiating characteristics, and consequently different implications for application of gorilla gaming theory, and to be sure Moore's thinking is understandably Silicon Valley centric, and Silicon Valley is hardly the hub of mobile wireless telephony.

So far as I am concerned discontinuous innovations dictate new infrastructure whether in the enterprise or wireless (or telecom) or wherever.

Obviously, the more discontinuous the innovation, the more infrastructure is required to support the innovation (and the less opportunnitty there is to "piggyback"), and to create whole product, and as a result some promising innovations never cross the chasm, or even make it into the chasm, because infrastructure demands are so complex. I am thinking of Artificial Intelligence in the eighties and PKI for IT/IS in the late nineties (which still holds promise for this decade as an enabler of e-commerce and m-commerce as well as IS).

As Moore points out in Chapter 2 of "The Gorilla Game", his investment strategy is based (in part) on the theory of market development developed in "Inside the Tornado" (and consequently on "Crossing the Chasm".

Moore uses Chapter 2 of "The Gorilla Game" to recap "tornado theory" and immediately introduces the subject of "discontinuous innovations" and he states that:

"From time to time technology breakthroughs enable an entirely different kind of offer - what is called a discontinuous innovation (examples: semiconductor, PC, spreadsheet, LAN, fax, relational database, web browser) ... To enjoy these benefits, however, users had to adopt new technologies and put in place new infrastructures that were incompatible with what were prevalent at the time ... [and for this reason] offers based on discontinuous innovations have a built-in delayed gratification period." - RFM, page 22 -

<< There is no chasm between the early adopters and the pragmatists because there is no way to 'know' what whole product is needed. I include in my definition of whole product service offerings attractive to the end user and a profitable business model. >>

In "Crossing the Chasm" Moore offers a classic example on page 21 of the revised edition of a prolonged chasm crossing related to the enterprise - client server computing for enterprise applications - and he discusses elements of the new infrastructure that had to develop and coalesce before client-server emerged as a viable software category:

"In 1987 it [client server computing for enterprise applications] was proclaimed by the Gartner Group as the enterprise architecture for the coming decade, and indeed every IT department genuflected in agreement. Every year there would be articles about breakthroughs ... but at the end of the day all that was sold was server-centric mainframe and minicomputer packages. It was not until 1992 - five years into the making - that client-server emerged as a viable software category, and it was not until 1995 - eight years later that it finally overtook its server-centric ancestor."

<< In enterprise markets, the chasm and bowling alley are periods to mature the technology and build out the whole product based on customer experience. >>

I think that the same applies to markets outside the enterprise.

Mobile wireless carriers (as an example) are using the the chasm and (in some cases) the bowling alley to migrate a voice-centric business model to a voice and data business model.

[Although Mike Buckley feels that wireless data is not yet in the chasm, I do - but thats another discussion].

<< Infrastructure markets, it seems to me, go right from the lab to being built. Look at the broadband market. There is still no 'whole product' in sight. >>

Again, using Mobile Wireless Carriers as an example, I would say that while there is no 'whole product' that you, Mike, or I, can reach out and touch, the 'whole product' exists on roadmaps (and in rudimentary form, in real life in Korea), and the carrier pragmatists have already made decisions to roll out infrastructure, and they are now rolling it out and that will enable 'whole product' to develop in what has obviously been a a supply side technology push from the outset.

The first bowling pin was taken out some time ago - SMS messaging - but that utilized circuit-switched data, and the discontinuities we are now dealing with involve packet-switched data and mobile-IP, and the discontinuity that will follow is the all-IP mobile wireless network.

Somewhere in there lies the discontinuous innovation we often discuss here - cdma - but at this point mobile wireless data is too early in the TALC to require the large pipe that cdma will eventually enable ....

... and we are still uncertain to what degree and how quickly we will need that large pipe ...

... which most certainly is not quite as quickly as we once envisioned ...

... which leads back to your statement 'build it and they will come' ... we hope!

Best,

- Eric -