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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Terry Whitman who wrote (36671)6/3/2002 1:34:50 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Respond to of 52237
 
>>Which ones, if I can be nosy?<<

I am playing with fire here so it isn't a recomendation.

I made a poor choice of REI probably as they are implicated in the round trip trading through their subsidiery RRI. I am down about 20 cents right now on it here at 16.35. Long term charts show it hangs in the 20s though so maybe I'll luck out. Original plan was to get some here at 16.50 then add more if it fell back to the 13 are and then do my final third if it went lower once it started heading back up. So far I only have the first third then I saw a story I didn't like so stopped and won't buy the other positions unless I can skip and play the low bounce skipping the 13 planned purchase.

I am also legging into ILA though I missed earlier today at 12.74 as it only ticked down to 12.75. I think this one is a bit safer than REI though I still have a 10K to scrub. The 10Qs didn't look too bad htough it is hard to tell viewing the most recent ones since NG prices fell from last year's high levels so they could be hiding some revenue drops under the lower price received. The 10K scrub should find that if it is there.

I haven't finished doing even basic research on the others like MIR, DYN, CMS, WMB etc yet. Something just smells bad with DYN but I can't put my finger on it and I am taking my time with it. Nothing I really see, just the hairs on the back of my neck go up whenever I look at it. -ggg-

Note on these, very small positions scattered throughout the sector are the way to go IMO. Some may go under due to debt problems so you don't want too much exposure to any one stock. I was dumb in getting REI and if I can grab a quick scalp, I will likely go elsewhere. I did some quick reading and thought they were OK but after my buy, I saw an article claiming that they are having a hard time getting anyone to trade with them in Europe due to fears they will be an ENE. Even if they are not an ENE, they can't make money if no one will trade with them. ILA is a bit more "normal" selling gas and electric and not relying on the trading aspect so much.

On healthcare, SNH and HCN are my favorites and make up my biggest positions. I leg in and out of others. HCN is abit worrisome though with a blow off top to 31 and then the drop back down to 27, I am on guard for a H&S back to the 24 area where I usually get into it. I will put stops in before I hit the road and then have a GTC buy set for the 23.89 zone to pick it back up.

SNH makes occassional dips to the 11s but they have been getting more and more infrequent.

All these have good track records for making their dividend payments. I think all these go back to the 80s for making payments wothout missing any though you might want to double check.

Now the risk is always self fulfilling prophecy if their credit gets downgrading to cause a liquidity problem.

Ooops, here come new lows again, I need to watch this move. Have to go.

Good Luck,

Lee